Thoughts On Last Night’s Special Elections

Ken AshfordElection 2018Leave a Comment

Last night parts of America went to vote on various candidates for primaries and special elections.  The most-watched and silliest race was the 12th District of Ohio. It was most-watched because it is regarded as a bellwether of the upcoming November elections (more on that later). It was the silliest because it was a special election to fill a vacant … Read More

Breaking: Trump Bigwigs Make Show Of Combating Russian Election Meddling (But The Press Is The Enemy Of The People)

Ken AshfordCybersecurity, Election 2018, L'Affaire Russe, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

About time too. After 18 months of getting kicked in the balls, the WH rolls out its national security team to discuss what they are doing to defend elections and protect against attacks by hostile actors (including information operations that target American public) About time, guys. — Molly McKew (@MollyMcKew) August 2, 2018 Yup. DNI Dan Coats, at WH briefing, … Read More

Facebook: We Found Campaign Influence Operations For Upcoming Elections

Ken AshfordCybersecurity, Election 2018, L'Affaire RusseLeave a Comment

Facebook has detected an ongoing influence operation targeting Americans with content related to the politically contentious issues of immigration enforcement and white supremacism, according to a report from the New York Times:  Like the Russian interference campaign in 2016, the recently detected campaign dealt with divisive social issues. Facebook discovered coordinated activity around issues like a sequel to last year’s deadly “Unite … Read More

A Very Well-Made Political Ad

Ken AshfordElection 2018Leave a Comment

Hegar has an uphill battle in a district that is rated R+10. It stretches from the northernmost suburbs of Austin to Fort Hood and it will be interesting to watch how an ad like the one below plays out in an area that is dominated by active-duty military. Hegar has obviously adopted the idea of “doors” as a theme for … Read More

How To Message The Trump-Russia Scandal

Ken AshfordElection 2018, L'Affaire Russe, Trump & Administration, Women's IssuesLeave a Comment

Having written about The Navigator last month, I am glad to see that the second issue deals with how to talk about the Mueller scandal. Some quick takeaways: A majority of Americans — 59 percent — say that Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia and the 2016 campaign has not yet uncovered evidence of any crimes, even though in reality, Mueller … Read More

Reuters Poll: The Blue Wave May Not Come

Ken AshfordElection 2018Leave a Comment

In the generic Republican vs Democratic ballot, the much-touted Dem lead has evaporated, according to the most recent Reuters poll. This is due, I suspect, to Mueller fatigue, and a somewhat successful (if not complete disingenuous and lie-based) media onslaught by Trump and Company. The Reuters poll reflects a larger trend of Republicans closing the gap in the generic ballot. A CNN … Read More

Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents

Ken AshfordElection 2018Leave a Comment

The Cook Political Report: Multiple indicators, including generic ballot polls , President Trump’s approval ratings and recent special election results, point to midterm danger for Republicans. But without robust race-by-race polling, it’s trickier to predict individual races six months out. Are Democrats the favorites to pick up the 23 seats they need for a majority? Yes, but it’s still not certain which races will materialize for … Read More

Ken AshfordCrime, Cybersecurity, Election 2018, Science & Technology, Wiretapping & SurveillanceLeave a Comment

This is torn from the blog of John Bambenek, a security analyst and Republican candidate for Illinois State Senate, about his conversations with Guccifer 2.0 (G2).  The post is entitled MY CONVERSATIONS WITH GUCCIFER 2.0 & THE SURPRISING ELECTION INFLUENCE OPERATIONS. As attention turns to threats facing 2018’s midterm elections, we’re learning hard lessons from what went down in 2016. (Plus, … Read More

WSJ Reporting Indicates Trump Campaign Violation

Ken AshfordCampaign Finance Reform, Election 2018, Stormy Daniels & Karen McDougal Affairs, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Remember how Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid $130,000 of his own money to adult film actress Stormy Daniels in the final weeks of the campaign so her past affair with Trump wouldn’t come out? And how there was question about exactly how often Cohen had paid people off for Trump using his own money, whether this was a campaign contribution, and … Read More

Sarah Sanders Press Conference – 2/20/2018

Ken AshfordBreaking News, Cybersecurity, Election 2018, Gun Control, L'Affaire Russe, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Her first press conference since the shooting — Sarah Sanders is reading her statement about the Parkland massacre like it’s a book report she really doesn’t want to deliver. — Matt Novak (@paleofuture) February 20, 2018 “It’s very clear that Russia meddled in the election. It’s also very clear it didn’t have an impact in the election,” Sarah Sanders says … Read More

Running For The Hills?

Ken AshfordElection 2018, Election 2020, RepublicansLeave a Comment

It’s a stampede for the exits. The Hill reports: Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), chairman of the House Oversight Committee, announced Wednesday that he will not run for reelection. “There is a time to come and a time to go. This is the right time, for me, to leave politics and return to the justice system,” he said in a statement on Twitter. … Read More

Jones Beats Moore In Close Result

Ken AshfordCongress, Democrats, Election 2016, Election 2018, Republicans, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Moore has not conceded, but the margin of victory is high enough to ensure no automatic recount. African-American turnout played an important role in Jones’ victory. Race played a bigger factor than education as white men AND WOMEN(!) preferred Moore. Of the 20 counties that saw their turnout rise in comparison to the 2014 midterm elections in Alabama, an election … Read More