Last night parts of America went to vote on various candidates for primaries and special elections. The most-watched and silliest race was the 12th District of Ohio. It was most-watched because it is regarded as a bellwether of the upcoming November elections (more on that later). It was the silliest because it was a special election to fill a vacant … Read More
Breaking: Trump Bigwigs Make Show Of Combating Russian Election Meddling (But The Press Is The Enemy Of The People)
About time too. After 18 months of getting kicked in the balls, the WH rolls out its national security team to discuss what they are doing to defend elections and protect against attacks by hostile actors (including information operations that target American public) About time, guys. — Molly McKew (@MollyMcKew) August 2, 2018 Yup. DNI Dan Coats, at WH briefing, … Read More
Facebook: We Found Campaign Influence Operations For Upcoming Elections
Facebook has detected an ongoing influence operation targeting Americans with content related to the politically contentious issues of immigration enforcement and white supremacism, according to a report from the New York Times: Like the Russian interference campaign in 2016, the recently detected campaign dealt with divisive social issues. Facebook discovered coordinated activity around issues like a sequel to last year’s deadly “Unite … Read More
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: A 28-Year-Old Democratic Giant Slayer
Some primaries were held last night, and there is news. The New York Times talks about a candidate who won the Dem primary in the House 14 (notably, the Times never even mentioned her before in any article, showing how unlikely her win was): She has never held elected office. She is still paying off her student loans. She is … Read More
A Very Well-Made Political Ad
Hegar has an uphill battle in a district that is rated R+10. It stretches from the northernmost suburbs of Austin to Fort Hood and it will be interesting to watch how an ad like the one below plays out in an area that is dominated by active-duty military. Hegar has obviously adopted the idea of “doors” as a theme for … Read More
How To Message The Trump-Russia Scandal
Having written about The Navigator last month, I am glad to see that the second issue deals with how to talk about the Mueller scandal. Some quick takeaways: A majority of Americans — 59 percent — say that Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia and the 2016 campaign has not yet uncovered evidence of any crimes, even though in reality, Mueller … Read More
Reuters Poll: The Blue Wave May Not Come
In the generic Republican vs Democratic ballot, the much-touted Dem lead has evaporated, according to the most recent Reuters poll. This is due, I suspect, to Mueller fatigue, and a somewhat successful (if not complete disingenuous and lie-based) media onslaught by Trump and Company. The Reuters poll reflects a larger trend of Republicans closing the gap in the generic ballot. A CNN … Read More
Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents
The Cook Political Report: Multiple indicators, including generic ballot polls , President Trump’s approval ratings and recent special election results, point to midterm danger for Republicans. But without robust race-by-race polling, it’s trickier to predict individual races six months out. Are Democrats the favorites to pick up the 23 seats they need for a majority? Yes, but it’s still not certain which races will materialize for … Read More
Introducing The Navigator
Why do progressives lose when we should win more often? Some say it is because of the way we frame the issues when talking about them. For example, Trump supporters point to the stock market and say the economy is doing great. What is the progressive response that resonates better with voters? (a) The economy might be better in the … Read More
This is torn from the blog of John Bambenek, a security analyst and Republican candidate for Illinois State Senate, about his conversations with Guccifer 2.0 (G2). The post is entitled MY CONVERSATIONS WITH GUCCIFER 2.0 & THE SURPRISING ELECTION INFLUENCE OPERATIONS. As attention turns to threats facing 2018’s midterm elections, we’re learning hard lessons from what went down in 2016. (Plus, … Read More
WSJ Reporting Indicates Trump Campaign Violation
Remember how Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid $130,000 of his own money to adult film actress Stormy Daniels in the final weeks of the campaign so her past affair with Trump wouldn’t come out? And how there was question about exactly how often Cohen had paid people off for Trump using his own money, whether this was a campaign contribution, and … Read More
Sarah Sanders Press Conference – 2/20/2018
Her first press conference since the shooting — Sarah Sanders is reading her statement about the Parkland massacre like it’s a book report she really doesn’t want to deliver. — Matt Novak (@paleofuture) February 20, 2018 “It’s very clear that Russia meddled in the election. It’s also very clear it didn’t have an impact in the election,” Sarah Sanders says … Read More
Running For The Hills?
It’s a stampede for the exits. The Hill reports: Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), chairman of the House Oversight Committee, announced Wednesday that he will not run for reelection. “There is a time to come and a time to go. This is the right time, for me, to leave politics and return to the justice system,” he said in a statement on Twitter. … Read More
Jones Beats Moore In Close Result
Moore has not conceded, but the margin of victory is high enough to ensure no automatic recount. African-American turnout played an important role in Jones’ victory. Race played a bigger factor than education as white men AND WOMEN(!) preferred Moore. Of the 20 counties that saw their turnout rise in comparison to the 2014 midterm elections in Alabama, an election … Read More
Moore v Jones: The Showdown
Virtually all national news is focusing on the Alabama Senate race to fill the seat of Jeff Sessions. On the one hand, you have Democrat Doug Jones — a prosecutor. On the other hand, you have disgraced judge Roy Moore, accused of feeling up (or as he calls it, “dating”) teenage girls while a prosecutor in his mid-thirties. Alabama is … Read More