Red Sox Opening

Ken AshfordRed Sox & Other SportsLeave a Comment

Today… uh, tomorrow.

Stupid rain.

The Sox are in perhaps the toughest MLB division this year.  But I like their chances to take the AL East.  Their pitching staff is young and lean.  And good.  Lester be the man.  And Bay.  Couple of Cy Young potentials on the roster.

And I don't think the Yankees will be as much of a threat, as they usually are.  The Tampa Bay Devil Rays, on the other hand, might be.

The Wild Card will be from the AL East, so at least two of these three — Red Sox, Devil Rays, and Yankees — will be playing postseason.

Would like to see a World Series matchup between the Red Sox and Dodgers (who now have Manny Ramierez).

The Right’s Beseigement Delusion

Ken AshfordObama OppositionLeave a Comment

About a week ago, the Senate easily approved legislation to expand national community service programs.  The bill increased the number of positions to 250,000 from 75,000 and created new cadres of volunteers focused on education, clean energy, health care and veterans.

The House had already easily passed a similar measure, and the president is anxious to sign it into law.

Not too controversial, right?

Nope.

One prominent right-wing blogger equated the bill to "what they have in Marxist regimes", a phrase he used above a black-and-white photo of Hitler Youth.  (Hitler was Marxist?  Who knew?)

Glenn Beck and Michelle Malkin mused that the bill was a "left-wing slush fund".

And Representative Michele Bachmann out-crazied herself.

Bachmann I believe that there is a very strong chance that we will see that young people will be put into mandatory service. And the real concerns is that there are provisions for what I would call re-education camps for young people, where young people have to go and get trained in a philosophy that the government puts forward and then they have to go to work in some of these politically correct forums.

What the hell?  Re-education camps?

First, there's nothing in the legislation requiring public service. It's about expanding service opportunities for those who choose to pursue them.

Also, the Senate version of the bill passed with bi-partisan votes, 79-19, and was co-sponsored by that well-known Marxist, Republican Senator Orrin Hatch.  The House version passed with 275-149 votes, also largely bi-partisan.

So what's this undertone by some on the right that this is some end-of-the-world attack on them and American values?  You see it lots of places and in many forms:  Obama wants to adopt a global currency! He wants young people in government-sponsored re-education camps! He wants to take medical decisions away from doctors and give them to bureaucrats! He's going to impose a tax on every time we flip a light switch!

Kevin Drum addressed this issue this weekend:

My tentative take is that there's an inchoate quality to their fears that's new.  In the past they were fighting against specific things: communism, hippies, Bill Clinton, Islamists, abortion, etc.  But communism is dead, the hippies are grown up, Clinton is off doing good works in Africa, al-Qaeda is pretty quiet, and it's pretty obvious that the culture wars have been lost. They're doing their best to slot Obama into the old Clinton/Gore role, but he just doesn't fit and the media isn't playing along the way they did in the 90s.  So they're stuck.  Who, exactly, is their enemy these days?

I'm not sure they know themselves.  But maybe that makes it worse.  A nuclear-armed USSR may be scary, but at least it's something you can identify.  These days that's a lot harder.  Like a horror movie where you're surrounded on all sides by something you can never quite make out, I guess it seems to them like there's something horrible going on, but it's something so insidious that they're only allowed to catch occasional foggy glimpses of it.  Budget deficits?  Healthcare reform? Top marginal tax rates going back to 39.6%? Negotiations with Iran?  Those aren't things that normally stir the blood.  But what if they're really just stalking horses for something far more malign?

I dunno.  Maybe that's the reason for the apocalyptic tone.  The actual policies that liberals are pursuing aren't that big a deal even by right-wing standards, but if besiegement is your stock in trade then that only means there must be something else going on that you're not being allowed to see.  Because there has to be something, doesn't there?

It seems to me that (some) Republicans simply can't win the political debates on the terms of the debate.  So instead, they make the debate about something else, something which truly doesn't exist in reality.  It is, after all, easier to win on issues when you cast the opposing side of the issue as advocating something apocalyptic.

The downside to this rather delusional tactic is that some people in "middle America" actually believe the rhetoric.  It feeds their paranoia.  And then shit like this happens.

Executive Compensation

Ken AshfordCorporate GreedLeave a Comment

If there's anything to glean from this NYT chart on executive compensation, it's the fact that it is so arbitrary.  For example, each of the executives below received wildly different compensation in 2008, yet all of their companies had revenue at around $37 billion that year:

Ceopay 

What gives?  There seems to no rationality to this.

But Matt Yglesius notes two patterns:

One is that American executives get paid wildly more than do European executives to run basically comparable firms. Look at executive pay in the supermajor oil firms and it’s clear that nationality rather than business acumen is driving the differentials.

The other big issue is that CEOs of newish companies, especially tech companies, tend to have much lower salaries. The issue, presumably, is that these guys are major stockholders in the firm. Steve Balmer is one of the richest men in America notwithstanding his low pay since Microsoft is a successful company. But if he were to pull a John Thain and render his company worthless through business blunders, he’d tumble down the list.

He argues that the Balmer model is the way to go.  If Microsoft were to tank, then Balmer's overall compensation would tank.  Seems fair.

Ice Shelf Breaking Up

Ken AshfordEnvironment & Global Warming & EnergyLeave a Comment

R357061_1643673 The Wilkins Ice Shelf is a shelf of ice in the Antarctica, one of ten on the Antarctic peninsula.  

Due to global warming, it has been breaking up for a couple of decades.  In the 1990s it measured 6,200 square miles.  Now it is thought to be at least half that size.

Scientists were still unsure how long the retreat of the ice shelf would be.

But events over the past couple of days have led them to conclude that the break up will be sooner than expected.

This is because an ice bridge over 60 miles long — but at its narrowest just 1/3 of a mile wide — kept the Wilkins shelf intact to the Antarctic.  But something happened to that ice bridge.  It was there two days ago — now it is a mass of shattered ices and bergs (shown above right).

This means that the Wilkins Ice Shelf itself — an area the size of Connecticut — could break off from the Antarctic soon.  Scientists hope the shelf will remain in its current position for the next few months, since the Antarctic summer is coming to a close.  But once the Antarctic winter ends and temperatures rise again, the Wilkins Ice Shelf could float away from the rest of the continent and breakup.  

The 17-frame animated gif below shows the breakup from satellite imagery, in sequence from March 22 to today.

The island visible in the upper left of the image is Charcot Island, and Latady Island at the bottom. The Wilkins Ice Shelf is connected to these by an ice bridge. 

The 60+ mile ice bridge is visible as a narrow strip near the center of the image (I've added a blue circle to the area on the first frame –focus your eyes there).  

Over the course of the photos, you can see ice bridge turn into something resembling shattered glass by the last image (taken earlier today).  You can also see breakup of the ice bridge to the "southeast" of where I drew the blue circle.
Wilkins

Global warming a hoax?

Pittsburgh Shootings

Ken AshfordGun ControlLeave a Comment

I’m afraid we are going to see a lot more of this

A man opened fire on officers during a domestic disturbance call Saturday morning, killing three of them, a police official said. Friends said he feared the Obama administration was poised to ban guns. 

Three officers were killed, said a police official at the scene who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media. Police spokeswoman Diane Richard would only say that at least five officers were wounded, but wouldn’t give any other details.

*** 

One friend, Edward Perkovic, said the gunman feared “the Obama gun ban that’s on the way” and “didn’t like our rights being infringed upon.”

Another longtime friend, Aaron Vire, said he feared that President Obama was going to take away his rights, though he said he “wasn’t violently against Obama.” 

Perkovic, a 22-year-old who said he was the gunman’s best friend, said he got a call at work from him in which he said, “Eddie, I am going to die today. … Tell your family I love them and I love you.” 

Perkovic said: “I heard gunshots and he hung up. … He sounded like he was in pain, like he got shot.” 

Vire, 23, said the gunman once had an Internet talk show but that it wasn’t successful. Vire said his friend had an AK-47 rifle and several powerful handguns, including a .357 Magnum.

Dave Neiwart writes:

He feared an Obama gun grab? Gee, I wonder where he could have heard that.

Indeed, a story replete with NRA-style fearmongering about the looming "grab" — which has been fueling a run on guns at local shops – ran just three days ago in the Pittsburgh Tribune.

We've been reporting for awhile on the surge in gun sales, and how the paranoia around guns is making the more unstable elements of the right particularly edgy. Inevitably, that edginess is going to break out into actual violence — as it appears to have done today.

Ironically, this is exactly the kind of incident that law-enforcement intelligence-gathering is supposed to help prevent — intelligence like the Missouri State Patrol report so hysterically attacked by these same paranoid right-wingers. I tried to explain at the time that these kinds of extremists are in fact a very real danger to people in law enforcement, but all anyone on the right wanted to talk about was Ron Paul bumper stickers. Well, there you go.

Digby adds:

This is one of the wierd fault lines in American politics — the police who have to face the armed citizenry and the macho right wing zealots whose only answer for anything is for everyone to carry more guns. It's incidents like today's that bring home the fallacy of that argument in living color — the cops are all armed and three of them got mowed down today by a gun nut.

Yup.  The shooters expected the last Democratic president to ban all guns. Needless to say, he didn't ban all guns. Democratic politicians never ban all guns. No Democratic politician ever will ban all the guns. 

And yet this fact is dismissed by literally every pro-gun zealot in America.

Pro-gunners are like children convinced that the boogeyman is under the bed — except they're not like children because it doesn't matter how many times Dad shines a flashlight under the bed to show there's nothing there, and it doesn't matter how much time passes, because they never grow up and realize their fears were infantile and unfounded and easily proved wrong by simple empirical evidence. What's more, they declare their belief in the boogeyman to be defiantly politically incorrect, and a necessary check on tyranny.

Gay Marriage Available Nationwide, As Of Today

Ken AshfordSex/Morality/Family ValuesLeave a Comment

One interesting sidenote to today's Iowa court decision, which permitted gay marriages in Iowa.

It's this: Iowa is one of the few states where you do not have to be a resident in order to get married.

This means that gay couples from anywhere in the country can travel to Iowa for the weekend and get married.  Legally.

The next question on your lips, I suspect, is this: Does your home state have to recognize the Iowa marriage?

Well, we know that if a straight couple gets married in state X and then moves to state Y, state Y automatically recognizes the validity of that marriage.

Unfortunately, due to the passage of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in 1996, this does not apply to gay marriages.  And the federal government does not have to recognize gay marriages either (so don't count on that federal income tax break yet).

But here's the thing: DOMA may not be constitutional, and a court might strike it down (there are many court challenges out there).  And even if DOMA isn't struck down by the courts, the Obama administration has stated a commitment to repealing DOMA.

Anyway, for you gay couples out there, it may be worth the time to take a trip to Boise or whereever, and tie the knot.  You can then rightfully boast of having a legally-recognized marriage.  And you wouldn't be lying.

Twitter Followers Prevent Suicide

Ken AshfordScience & TechnologyLeave a Comment

DemiMoore1_ghost Demi Moore tweets (so does Ashton)

She has 380,000 followers.

A San Jose woman sent a message to Moore on Twitter, saying she was going to commit suicide.  Moore, who was in the south of France, responded with "I hope you are joking".

Followers of Moore's Twitter feed were able to determine the location of the woman, and notified San Jose police.  The woman was taken in for psychiatric treatment.

Odd technological world we live in.  Full story here.

The End Of Voicemail?

Ken AshfordScience & Technology1 Comment

New York Times:

“Once upon a time, voice mail was useful,” said Yen Cheong, 32, a book publicist in New York who has transitioned almost entirely to e-mail and text messaging. According to her calculation, it takes 7 to 10 steps to check a voice mail message versus zero to 3 for an e-mail.

“If you left a message, I have to dial in, dial in my code,” Ms. Cheong said. “Then I mess up and redial. Then once I hear the message, I need the phone number. I try to write it down, and then I have to rewind the message to hear it again,” she added, feigning exhaustion.

Yglesius comments, and represents the views of many, including me:

If you leave a message on my cell phone, I might get back to you one of these days. If you leave a message on my office voicemail, forget about it. I’m not even entirely sure I know how to check it. Definitely the whole time I was employed at The Atlantic I never once returned a voicemail. I figure that anyone who’s really eager to get in touch with me will email me. In general, I’m not a fan of talking on the phone, but listening to recorded messages of other people talking to me on the phone is absolutely the worst.

[Emphasis added]

Plus, it is me, or has phone reception generally — with both landlines and cell phones — gotten gradually worse and worse over the past, oh, 15 years?

Diplomacy In Action

Ken AshfordEconomy & Jobs & Deficit, Foreign Affairs, Obama & AdministrationLeave a Comment

For those who ever doubted that effective diplomacy cannot lead to results, and that our new president is a skilled diplomat, read this:

According to sources inside the room, President Obama just played peacemaker in a spat between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Hu Jintao, President of the People's Republic of China.

In the finaly plenary session among the G-20 leaders, Sarkozy and Hu were having a heated disagreement about tax havens.

***

The exchange between Sarkozy and Hu got so heated, said a source — who is not a member of the Obama administration — it was threatening the unity of the G-20 leaders' meeting.

Obama to the rescue:

But Mr. Obama, according to this account, stepped between the two men, urging them to try to find consensus, and giving them a "pep talk" about the importance of working together.

The senior adminstration official said that Mr. Obama pulled Mr. Sarkozy aside, took him to a corner, "and discussed possible alternatives," the senior official said.

Once they arrived at one, President Obama "sent a message to the Chinese" that a counter-offer was on the table. The Chinese spent some time considering the offer. But they took a few minutes.

So Mr. Obama, with the assistance of translators, suggested that he and Mr. Hu have a conversation as well. They, too went to the corner to talk. After a few minutes, Mr. Obama called upon Mr. Sarkozy to join them.

"Translators and sherpas in tow, they reached an agreement," the official said. "There was a multiple shaking of hands."

And that's how it's done.

Local Unemployment Still Worse Than National Level

Ken AshfordEconomy & Jobs & Deficit1 Comment

March numbers are out:

Nationwide, the unemployment rate is 8.5%.

Below is an updated chart showing job losses in this recession compared to five prior recessions.

Jobloss32009-thumb-500x358  

Robert Reich, Clinton economist, doesn't mince words.  "It's a depression", he blogs.

The March employment numbers, out this morning, are bleak: 8.5 percent of Americans officially unemployed, 663,000 more jobs lost. But if you include people who are out of work and have given up trying to find a job, the real unemployment rate is 9 percent. And if you include people working part time who'd rather be working full time, it's now up to 15.6 percent. One in every six workers in America is now either unemployed or underemployed.

This is still not the Great Depression of the 1930s, but it is a Depression. And the only way out is government spending on a very large scale. We should stop worrying about Wall Street. Worry about American workers. Use money to build up Main Street, and the future capacities of our workforce.

Lovely.  it's even worse locally.

In North Carolina, the unemployment rate is at 11.3% (February numbers, just released), up 1% from January.  The unemployment rate went up in every one of NC's 100 counties, except Caswell County, which went down a mere 0.2% from 13.2% to 13%. 

In Forsyth County, the unemplyment rate is at 10%, up 1.2% from January's 8.8%.

Winston-Salem's unemployment rate rose to 10.4%, up from 9.2%.

Binghamton Shootings

Ken AshfordBreaking News, Crime, Gun ControlLeave a Comment

Death toll up to 13, some reports say.  It's not even clear, as I write this, if the situation is over with.  Some reports say a man was arrested, some say two men were arrested, and still others say there is a hostage situation.  [UPDATE 2:45 pm — Now hearing it was a single gunman, and he is dead.]

It's too early — waaaay to early — to ascribe motive, but since the shooting took place at The American Civic Association — a business that helps immigrants and refugees with counseling, resettlement, citizenship, family reunification, interpreters and translators — it's a reasonable guess that the shooter was either a disgruntled immigrant, or a rightwinger with a bone to pick with immigrants. [UPDATE 4:00 pm — NBC and FOX are reporting the shooter, now dead, was a 42 year old Vietnamese immigrant named Jiverly Voong.  Apparently this was on his driver's license, which suggests he was a legal immigrant.]

Anyway, there seems to be a spate of these lately.  Disturbing….

Kudos To Iowa

Ken AshfordConstitution, Godstuff, Sex/Morality/Family Values1 Comment

It's one thing when Massachusetts courts recognizes a constitutional right to gay marriage, but when it happens in the "middle America" state of Iowa, that's an entirely different thing:

The Iowa Supreme Court this morning unanimously upheld gays’ right to marry.

“The Iowa statute limiting civil marriage to a union between a man and a woman violates the equal protection clause of the Iowa Constitution,” the justices said in a summary of their decision.

The court rules that gay marriage would be legal in three weeks, starting April 24.

No doubt, social conservatives will try to "overturn" this ruling at the ballot box, with a amendment to the Iowa Constitution, as they did in California.  Andrew Sullivan reports that, because of onerous Iowa legislative rules, an amendment couldn't reach the Iowa ballot until 2012.  By then, of course, there will be lots of gay marriages already in existence in Iowa. (More on that here).

I read the Court's opinion, and it is well-written and sound.  The defendants (the County, trying to uphold the law banning gay marriage) argued that the ban did not discriminate on the basis of sexual orientation, because the ban did not even refer to sexual orientation.  The statute simply said that civil marriage can only be between a man and a woman.  Gay men and gay women could still be married, the County argued — they just couldn't marry someone of the same sex.  And since every man and every woman could be legally married, there was no gender discrimination either.

The Court didn't buy it.

Iagay1   

Iagay2 

I also like the way the Court addressed the County's argument that all it was trying to do was preserve the traditional understanding of "marriage".

Iagay3

In other words, the Court was saying that if the traditional understanding of marriage is discriminatory, then the argument that you are "preserving the traditional understanding of marriage" doesn't fly.  Discrimination is discrimination, whether it is traditional or not.

The County also argued that, even if the statute discriminates, the state has a legitimate interest in ensuring that children grow up in an optimal (i.e., mother/father) environment.

The Court responded by saying that the overwhelming scientific evidence shows that children fare just as well, if not better, when raised by gay married couples.

But it acknowledged that there is a smattering of well-meaning scientific evidence to the contrary as well.

But then it continued on saying essentially, "even if we believe the County's scientific evidence, the statute doesn't purport to do what the County says it will":

Iagay4 

Iagay5 

So out the window goes the child-rearing argument.

Next, the Court took a swipe at the County's argument that the statute banning gay marriage was necessary because it "promotes procreation of children":

Iagay6 

And of course, banning gays from marriage doesn't really result in more heterosexual procreation.  So out the window with that argument.

The County's argument that the gay marriage ban was necessary to "promote stability in opposite-sex marriages" was met with derision by the Court.  How exactly, the Court asked, does excluding gays from marriage help keep traditional marriages stable?  The County of course had no response — another argument bites the dust.

The Court then address other aspects of the County's arguments, most notably the religious opposition to gay marriage.  The Court said, look folks, this is a statute that regards civil marriage.  Religion doesn't enter into it, from a consitutional standpoint.  And it shouldn't — separation of church and state and all that.  It added:

Iagay7 

Slam. Dunk.

The Iowa court's opinion, by the way, is a good roadmap for the California court which is now reviewing the constitutionality of Prop 8 in that state. 

The bottom line is this: if the Constitution (state or federal) guarantees "equal protection" under the law, then the majority, through their legislature or by ballot initiative, cannot carve out exceptions.  When states start saying, "We guarantee equal protection….. except when applied to THIS class of people under THIS set of circumstances", then you don't guarantee EQUAL protection at all.[but see, Footnote 1 below]  

And once you cease to guarantee equal treatment under the law, you open the door to bring back slavery or do all kinds of unjust and unequal things.

************

Footnote below the fold…

UPDATE:  What's more, about 12 hours before the ruling in Iowa, Vermont's state House joined the state Senate in passing legislation to allow gay marriage in the Green Mountain State. The final vote was 95 to 52.

The Vermont measure will be vetoed by the state's Republican governor, Jim Douglas, though proponents remain cautiously optimistic that the legislature can override the veto.

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