The CBO Report

Ken AshfordEconomy & Jobs & DeficitLeave a Comment

So the Republicans went out in front of the cameras yesterday to let the world know something.  According to a non-partisan study by the Congressional Budget Office, the money from Obama's stimulus plan won't be spent until quite some time.

The media picked this up and reported it as fact.  The Washington Post, for example:

Stimulus Projects May Be Slow, CBO Says

A report by the Congressional Budget Office found that only about $136 billion of the $355 billion that House leaders want to allocate to infrastructure and other so-called discretionary programs would be spent by Oct. 1, 2010. The rest would come in future years, long after the CBO and other economists predict the recession will have ended.

***

But the CBO analysis appears to confirm the complaints of many Republicans and other critics, who have long argued that spending money on highway construction and other infrastructure projects is ineffective at quickly jolting a sluggish economy. The report was distributed to reporters yesterday by aides to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)

The report also suggests that the House measure would violate Obama's rules for the stimulus package; Obama aides have said they want the bulk of the spending to occur before 2011. Obama has pledged that the measure would save or create at least 3 million jobs over the next two years.

The networks ran with it as well, reporting it at least 81 times:

– “There’s a Congressional Budget Office report out today that suggests that the $825 billion stimulus proposal from Democrats, which is supposed to be timely and temporary, actually offers most of its spending a couple years from now,” — Carl Cameron [Fox News, 1/20/09]

– “Even the Congressional Budget Office is very skeptical about the rapidity with which that stimulus, this set of proposals, can move through, and that it could be four years before we see the results,” — Andrea Mitchell [MSNBC, 1/21/09]

– “Well that was another question raised in this Congressional Budget Office study. It was suggesting that a lot of the spending proposals in the original plan would not really take effect for a couple of years, so it wouldn’t clearly help create jobs in the first two years of the president’s administration,” — Ed Henry [CNN, 1/23/09]

– “There was a report out earlier this week from [the] Congressional Budget Office pointing out that the appropriated funds, that portion of the stimulus package that, you know, less than half of that was really going to be spent even within the next two years,” — Karen Tumulty [CNN, 1/24/09]

The problem?  No such CBO report exists.

The CBO did do a preliminary analysis on an older version of Obama's stimulus package, not the one being offered now.

But today, we have the actual CBO report on the actual stimulus package.  Let's return to the Washington Post, in today's article (written by the same journalist):

House Plan Offers 'Noticeable Impact'

CBO Sees 65% Spent by End of Fiscal 2010

Approximately two-thirds of the spending and tax cuts contained in an economic stimulus package crafted by House Democrats would flow into the economy by the end of fiscal 2010, producing a "noticeable impact on economic growth and employment," congressional budget analysts said yesterday.

In an eagerly awaited analysis of the stimulus package, which is set for a vote in the House tomorrow, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office concluded that the measure would cost the federal government about $816 billion over the next 10 years and that approximately $526 billion, or about 65 percent, would be spent by the end of September 2010

Got that?  The "fake" CBO report said that "about $136 billion… would be spent by Oct. 1, 2010"; the real one, released today, says "approximately $526 billion, or about 65 percent, would be spent by the end of September 2010."

Way to report, media.

Is Obama's stimulus package perfect?  No.  There is some unnecessary spending which probably won't stimulate the economy or provide jobs.  (NOTE: the most controversial spending provision — where money was allocated to medicare for the distribution of contraceptives — was removed this morning).

And there are too many tax cuts which won't help at all.  Bob Herbert is frustrated:

The truth, of course, is that the country is hemorrhaging jobs and Americans are heading to the poorhouse by the millions. The stock markets and the value of the family home have collapsed, and there is virtual across-the-board agreement that the country is caught up in the worst economic disaster since at least World War II.

The Republican answer to this turmoil?

Tax cuts.

They need to go into rehab.

The question that I would like answered is why anyone listens to this crowd anymore. G.O.P. policies have been an absolute backbreaker for the middle class. (Forget the poor. Nobody talks about them anymore, not even the Democrats.) The G.O.P. has successfully engineered a wholesale redistribution of wealth to those already at the top of the income ladder and then, in a remarkable display of chutzpah, dared anyone to talk about class warfare.

And yes, some of the spending is a little slow.  But Steve Bene reminds us of two points:

As for the "slowest" parts of the package, the CBO analysis notes a variety of factors, including "seasonal" concerns — school renovations are better over the summer, and highway construction in the north over the winter is inherently tricky.

What's more, I'm also reminded of something Paul Krugman noted over the weekend: those portions of the stimulus plan that'll kick in later might help, too, since the economy will need ongoing boosts. "[W]e're looking at a situation where even if some of the projects are continuing to add spending two years out, two-and-a half, even three years out, that's not such a bad thing," Krugman explained.

So, it's not too bad.  The important thing is to get it passed, and passed now.  The House GOP seems unified in voting "no" on the bill.  That's fine, if not entirely predictable.  Maybe we shouldn't try to appease them.  Perhaps the thing to do is to take the bill back and make it better.  After all, the GOP votes aren't needed.  The whole "bipartisan" attempt was nice, even noble, but that requires both parties to play.

Eight Is Enough

Ken AshfordHealth CareLeave a Comment

She — and the doctors — were expecting septuplets, but surprise, surprise.  An eighth one appeared, making it the second known time that octuplets were born in the United States.  Story here.  And here.

Obama Throws An Elbow

Ken AshfordObama & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Sure, Obama is willing to talk with, and listen to, members of the GOP — and solicit their views.

But it's nice to know that he's no pushover:

President Obama listened to Republican gripes about his stimulus package during a meeting with congressional leaders Friday morning – but he also left no doubt about who's in charge of these negotiations. "I won," Obama noted matter-of-factly, according to sources familiar with the conversation.

Countdown to right-wing whining that Obama isn't being "bi-partisan" enough by virtue of the fact that he's not caving in to their demands.  10, 9, 8, 7….

UPDATE:  Wow, that was quick.

UPDATE:  Of course, Obama has said this about himself…

Sacrifice

Ken AshfordEconomy & Jobs & DeficitLeave a Comment

Gscookie I know in these hard economic times, we have been called upon to make sacrifices.

But really.  This is just too much to ask:

If you seem to be tearing through those Girl Scout Thin Mints a little faster this year, you aren't imagining things.

Fewer cookies were packaged into Thin Mints, Do-si-dos and Tagalongs boxes this year, and the Lemon Chalet Crème cookies were resized to compensate for the rising cost of baking staples.

I'll bear any burden, meet any challenge, etc.  But don't fuck with my Girl Scout Thin Mints.

Can't they get a government bailout loan or something?

Time To Change The Fourth Circuit

Ken AshfordCourts/LawLeave a Comment

This op-ed piece in the New York Times reminds me: we can (and should) do something about the Fourth Circuit.

The article is written by Judge Wilkinson, a staunch conservative, and a main driving force that gives the Fourth Circuit the reputation as being the most conservative in the country.

The Fourth Circuit is the federal court of appeals (one court level "below" the U.S. Supreme Court) that presides over Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia and the Carolinas.  It, like the other circuit courts are powerful, as this 2003 NYT article states:

Few pay much attention to federal courts below the Supreme Court level. But they should. The appellate courts, created in the late 19th century to relieve overcrowding of the Supreme Court's docket, decide about 28,000 cases a year compared with the highest court's 75 or so. Practically speaking, they have the final say in most matters of law; their reach is broader, if not deeper, than the Supreme Court's itself.

The Fourth Circuit has been damaging, and carries the potential to do more damage:

It pushes the envelope, testing the boundaries of conservative doctrine in the area of, say, reasserting states rights over big government. Sometimes, the Supreme Court reins in the Fourth Circuit, reversing its more experimental decisions, but it also upholds them or leaves them alone to become the law of the land.

Some of the 4th Circuit's best-known rulings, upheld by the Supreme Court, include striking down a law allowing rape victims to sue their attackers in federal court and preventing the Food and Drug Administration from regulating tobacco.

It's no surprise then, that during the Bush administration, the 4th Circuit has been the court of choice on national security, issuing key rulings that backed the government on the detention of enemy combatants and the prosecution of Sept. 11, 2001, conspirator Zacarias Moussaoui.

Judge Wilkinson is worried:

With four vacancies on our 15-member court, the 4th Circuit may be the best game in town. With the new numbers in the Senate, the temptation is there to go for an ideological makeover.

And naturally, he doesn't want to see that happen.

On one level, he is correct.  The courts should not be full of ideologues.  But in making that comment, Wilkinson has a blind spot to his own ideological makeup.

He's not going anywhere.  But with Obama in office, and a Democrat-controlled Congress, now is the time to provide, not an ideological "makeover", but an ideological course correction to a more balanced Fourth Circuit.

UPDATE:  A comment at Volokh Conspiracy about Wilkinson:

As chief judge of the Fourth Circuit during the Clinton Administration, Wilkinson repeatedly made statements claiming that the Senate should not confirm any Clinton nominees to that court because it would reduce the court's "collegiality." He immediately ceased his objections when Bush took the oath of office.

Now, on the third day of the Obama Administration, Wilkinson warns that President Obama better not nominate any judges who don't agree with Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson. I'd like to know who he thinks he's fooling.

Another Good Beginning

Ken AshfordObama & Administration, Women's IssuesLeave a Comment

Obama reversed the gag rule:

THIS WEEK marks the 20th anniversary of a profound and misguided change in US foreign policy: the Reagan administration's "global gag rule," which was first announced at an international family planning conference in Mexico City in August 1984.

The "Mexico City" policy prohibits US dollars and contraceptive supplies from going to any international family planning program that provides abortions or counsels women about their reproductive health options.

The problem with the "gag rule" of course is that most family planning programs abroad, like the ones here, provide all kinds of health services to women — not just abortions.  In fact, for most international family planning facilities, abortion represents a small fraction of the services provided.

The policy isn't about money going to pay for abortions. Even those groups that use only private funds for abortion services — where abortion is legal — are barred from assistance. This is money going to family planning programs.

And what has been the consequence?

In Kenya, for example, two of the leading family planning organizations have been forced to shut down five clinics dispensing aid from prenatal care and vaccinations to malaria screening and AIDS prevention. Kenya's experience is common, according to "Access Denied," a report on the impact of the global gag rule on developing nations. Researchers found that programs for rural communities and urban slums have been scaled back by as much as 50 percent. As a result more women are turning to unsafe abortion — a leading cause of death for young women in much of Africa — because they lack access to family planning information and essential contraceptive supplies.

In other words, better to have people dies from malaria and AIDS rather than destroying fetuses.  So much for the "culture of life".

The “Obama Is Dangerous” Meme Starts

Ken AshfordWar on Terrorism/TortureLeave a Comment

Over at The Corner, Mark Thiesson (former Bush speechwriter) gripes:

Less than 48 hours after taking office, Obama has begun dismantling those institutions without time for any such review.  The CIA program he is effectively shutting down is the reason why America has not been attacked again after 9/11. He has removed the tool that is singularly responsible for stopping al-Qaeda from flying planes into the Library Tower in Los Angeles, Heathrow Airport, and London’s Canary Warf, and blowing up apartment buildings in Chicago, among other plots.  It’s not even the end of inauguration week, and Obama is already proving to be the most dangerous man ever to occupy the Oval Office.

[Emphasis mine].

Hyperbole, lies, hyperbole, lies.

The CIA program that Obama is "effectively shutting down" is, as we all know, the torture program.  But was the torture program "singularly responsible" for stopping, say, the Library Tower attack in Los Angeles?  Nope.  According to intelligence experts:

U.S. intelligence began to unravel the plot after Zaini Zakaria, an engineer from Malaysia, was arrested in December 2002. Zaini had spent time in training camps in Afghanistan. There, he came into contact with Hambali, who later recruited him into the "planes operation" as a pilot. Zaini obtained a general aviation license in Malaysia in 1999 and was working toward a license to fly jets from Australia. However, he reportedly pulled out of the al Qaeda plot after seeing media coverage of the 9/11 attacks.

Zaini was arrested by Malaysian authorities, under that country's Internal Security Act, and sent to the Kamunting Detention Center in Taiping. The next arrest — which probably was the death knell for the Library Tower plot — was that of Mohammed in Pakistan, in March 2003. Hambali was captured in Thailand in August the same year, which effectively put all the key players behind bars.

Policework — catching the bad guys — put the plot (which never got behind the formative stage anyway) down.  Not torture.  Torture (if any existed — by us or the Malaysians) may have revealed the plot, but at the point of its revelation, it was already defunct.

And even then, how do we know the Liberty Towers plot is even true?  An al-Qaeda operative says so?  Under torture (perhaps)?  Is that reliable information?  Might the operative be saying something — anything — simply to end the interrogation?

To Boldly Split Verbs Where No One Has Split Them Before

Ken AshfordConstitutionLeave a Comment

Did Chief Justice Roberts mess up the Constitutional oath?  Or was he just a stickler for proper English grammar?

The oath says "…will faithfully execute the Office of the President of the United States…".  Roberts prompted Obama to say "…to execute the Office of the President of the United States faithfully…"

But this op-ed suggests that Roberts simply was using proper English by not splitting his verbs:

But a simpler explanation is that the wayward adverb in the passage is blowback from Chief Justice Roberts’s habit of grammatical niggling.

Language pedants hew to an oral tradition of shibboleths that have no basis in logic or style, that have been defied by great writers for centuries, and that have been disavowed by every thoughtful usage manual. Nonetheless, they refuse to go away, perpetuated by the Gotcha! Gang and meekly obeyed by insecure writers.

This doesn't strike me as plausible.  The oath of office – yes, with the split infinitive — is set out in the constitution:

"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."

[Emphasis mine].

Roberts is a strict textualist.  There is no way he would veer from the actual text of the Constitution in order to make a grammatical (and arcane) point. 

Furthermore, very quick research has shown that Roberts, in his legal opinions, is no stranger to split-verb usage, as well as infinitive-splitting.

It should be also be noted that "to the best of my ability" also splits some verbs.  And Roberts didn't screw around with that.

So the final verdict?  It was a flub.

Hitting the Ground Running

Ken AshfordObama & AdministrationLeave a Comment

From closing Gitmo to transparent governing, from freezing last-minute Bush regulations to slowing the government-lobbying revolving door, the Obama administration has been very busy these past 24 hours.  WaPo has the full rundown, all of it extremely gratifying to read.

Glenn Greenwald praises:

Barack Obama will have spent his first several days in office issuing a series of executive orders which, some quibbling and important caveats aside, meet or actually exceed even the most optimistic expectations of civil libertarians — everything from ordering the closing of Guantanamo to suspending military commissions to compelling CIA interrogators to adhere to the Army Field Manual to banning CIA "black sites" and, perhaps most encouragingly (in my view):  severely restricting his own power and the power of former Presidents to withhold documents on the basis of secrecy, which has been the prime corrosive agent of the Bush era.  As a result, establishment and right-wing figures who have been assuring everyone that Obama would scorn "the Left" (meaning:  those who believe in Constitutional safeguards) and would continue most of Bush's "counter-Terrorism" policies are growing increasingly nervous about this flurry of unexpected activity.

Revelations From Bush Era: American Journalists Spied Upon

Ken AshfordWiretapping & SurveillanceLeave a Comment

One day into his administration, and Obama is already making leaps and bounds in removing the secrecy that so characterized the Bush Administration.  In the sweep of a pen, Obama has made the process of governing more open and transparent.

But the damage has been done.  MSNBC's Keith Olbermann interviewed Russell Tice, a former National Security Agency analyst last night. Tice says that, under the ruse of making sure that the NSA did NOT target American media and journalists, they actually collected information on every communication those journalists and media organizations had 24/7.
 

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

And it gets potentially worse:
"The National Security Agency had access to all Americans' communications — faxes, phone calls, and their computer communications," Tice claimed. "It didn't matter whether you were in Kansas, in the middle of the country, and you never made foreign communications at all. They monitored all communications."

Tice further explained that "even for the NSA it's impossible to literally collect all communications. … What was done was sort of an ability to look at the metadata … and ferret that information to determine what communications would ultimately be collected."

2008 Oscar Nominees (And My Predictions)

Ken AshfordPopular CultureLeave a Comment

Let's get right to it:

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Probably one of the easiest categories to predict this year.  It's Slumdog Millionaire.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Gus Van Sant, Milk

When in doubt (as I am), go with the guy who directed the best picture.  So, it's Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire).

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Tough category — they are all deserving.  Glad to see Richard Jenkins there, but he's up against heavyweights.  But the sentimental favorite will probably take the statue: Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler).

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Kate Winlet had two good movies this year – Revolutionary Road and The Reader.  Oddly, she won for both at the Golden Globes, with her role in The Reader considered to be a "supporting" role.  Her performance in Revolutionary Road wasn't even nominated, nor was Sally Hawkins, who won the Golden Globe for Best Actress (Musical or Comedy) for Happy Go Lucky.  Still, for a good year (if nothing else), it'll go to Kate Winslet (The Reader).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

I don't think there's much question on this one: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

First of all, its great that every major actor in Doubt got nominated.  I don't think Meryl or Philip are going to take it.  Viola Davis is probably the only one of the cast to stand a chance.  Marisa is (as always) my sentimental favorite, but I'm going to pick Viola Davis (Doubt).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frozen River , Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter

Wall-E?  Really?  Not much to, you know, write, seeing as the movie lacked dialogue for the first half.  I'm going with Martin McDonagh (In Bruges), but only because I just did a reading of his stage play "The Pillowman", and I think he's an excellent writer.  Well, no.  I actually saw In Bruges and thought it was very good.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy

Very competitive category.  I don't think Shanley did a great job of adapating his stage play.  For me, I think it's a coin-toss between Eric Roth, David Hare, and Simon Beaufoy.  But I give the slight edge to Eric Roth (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Is there any question?  WALL-E.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

The Dark Knight.  A guess.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

The Reader.  Another guess.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

I'm going with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, only because it spanned many time periods.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

Well, I loved the documentary Man on Wire.  It's the only one of the nominees I've seen.  I don't think it has the gravitas of an award-winning documentary however.  Trouble the Water, about the aftermath of Katrina, will probably win.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness — From the Balcony of Room 306

Given the political climate, I'm going with the MLK-related film: The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306.

BEST EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Frost/Nixon.  A guess.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Departures (Japan)
Revanche (Austria)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

I'm going with the animated autobiographical film from Israel: Waltz with Bashir.

BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

I think it's pretty clear it'll be The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Alexandre Desplat
Defiance, James Newton Howard
Milk, Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman
WALL-E, Thomas Newman

Let's give it to the Indian: A.R. Rahman (Slumdog Millionaire)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
''Down to Earth,'' (WALL-E)
''Jai Ho,'' (Slumdog Millionaire)
''O Saya,'' (Slumdog Millionaire)

Odd that the Springsteen song from The Wrestler didn't make it.  I think it'll be one of the Slumdog songs.  So I'll guess "O Saya" (Slumdog Millionaire)

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

WALL-E.  A reasoned guess.

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

WALL-E.  A reasoned guess.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Oh, what the hell — The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.  I'd like to see a non-actiojn film win one of these for a change.