The Ashford Zone Blog

I rarely vote at midterm elections, and off-year elections like this one — I barely pay attention, much less vote.

This year is no different.  There's no local race or bond issue that I particularly care about.  A former colleague, Dawn Morgan, is running for re-election as mayor of Kernersville, but I can't vote there.  And she's running unopposed.  So, congratulations Dawn.

The only thing I'm taking an interest in this off-year election — as are many — is Question No. 1 in Maine.  I have relatives in Maine, although I would probably still be interested anyway.  Question No. 1 in Maine is a "people's veto" of the Maine legislature's act to recognize gay marriage.  A "yes" victory on Question 1 means the legislature is overturned, and gay marriage will not be recognized.  A "no" victory on Question 1 means the law remains inplace and gay marriage is recognized.

It carries some national significance, for obvious reasons.  Opponents of gay marriage typically complain that such a "change in the definition of 'marriage'" should not be done by courts and so-called "activist" judges (even though, constitutionally, failure to recognize gay marriage really is unconstitutional).  Those opponents have argued that the people of the states should decide.

Well, Maine will decide tomorrow.  And how does it look?

Election statistician Nate Silver does the math based on the sparse number of pre-election polls.  He notes that all the polls conducted are dependent on what the pollster assumes about turnout.  Nate believes that the No-on-1 people are more motivated, and concludes:

The Odds: A statistical analysis I conducted last month, which was based on the results from previous gay marriage referenda in other states, gave the Yes on 1 side just an 11 percent chance of prevailing, although the fraction rises to 32 percent after an ad-hoc adjustment for the fact that this is an off-year election. In spite of the PPP poll, I'm not especially persuaded to deviate substantially from those numbers: the polling average still favors the 'No' side, albeit narrowly; the 'No' side seems to have run the superior campaign, and the cellphone issue may be worth a point or two. The tight polling, certainly, should keep everybody on their toes, and gay marriage could quite easily be overturned. But I'd still put the Yes on 1 side as about a 5-to-2 underdog.

That's hopeful. 

[I'll also be watching the NY-23 race as well — notable because the teabaggers have ousted the moderate Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, in favor of the far more conservative candidate third-party candidate, Dough Hoffman.  Scozzafava withdrew from the race last week and endorsed the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens.  This is the first national election putting the whole "tea party" movement to its first actual political test, and their candidate (Hoffman) is in a statistical dead heat with Owens.]

Jim Newell at Wonkette comments on this ad:

The latest anti-gay ad in Maine, produced by a paranoid schizophrenic on meth, features random documents with bureaucratic titles and pulled phrases flying around the screen at warp speed, to Warn us. The gay teachers in Maine are all going to come out and then force the gay children — you know, the quiet little boys who play with dolls in the sandbox at recess — to come out with them.

“Gay marriage will be taught in schools unless we vote Yes on Question 1,” the insane person tells us. Do they “teach” straight marriage now? When we were in grade school, all the teaching was about multiplication and reading and George Washington and whatever. Now everyone just learns to be gay and to sext each other and to compare and contrast iPhones and Palm Pres.

Example:

 
Here's the link.  The answers are a scream, too.  A sampling:

If you walked in on your male neighbor and saw the same thing what would you think? I'm glad I don't have to clean that room when all you guys are 'finished'.

Dear sir,
You are so the very, very gay. You are in fact so very gay that the gay people call you gay.

What are you, 10 yrs old? Sound very immature to me.

OK, no gay person would ever be such a pervert.

If it's real then she's reacting as any woman of a grown man involved in a circle jerk would react. What she's caught is exactly what you want it not to be…some type of perverted homosexual or homo-erotic behavior that is pretty sick. You may be stuck in the 80's but what you're describing here isn't what men who lived through that decade as an adult did. If she can stomach you again she's a real princess. My guess is she can't and won't. Good luck…

The Catholic Church is in favor of "No 1" in Maine, the voting referendum which, if passed, will overturn the governor and Maine legislature's decisions to allow same-sex marriage.

And that's fine, but look who they are getting into bed with:

The Maine Grassroots Coalition will hold a press conference in the Hall of  Flags at the State House in Augusta at 11:00 on Wednesday October 28th, to alert the public to the dangers of the radical homosexual agenda. The press conference will feature three well-known pro-family speakers, Peter LaBarbera of Americans for Truth about Homosexuality, Brian Camenker of Mass Resistance, and Maine's own Paul Madore, from the Maine Grassroots Coalition.

[Emphasis mine]

Brian Camenker is the leader of one of only eleven organizations to be so extreme, that they've chosen by the Southern Poverty Law Center as an official anti-gay hate group.