Even though final arguments are going on in the Trump Impeachment, most Americans have moved on. We know what the result will be — we’ve always known — but it is depressing to get our nose rubbed in it.
Trump hasn’t moved on:
Where’s the Whistleblower? Where’s the second Whistleblower? Where’s the Informer? Why did Corrupt politician Schiff MAKE UP my conversation with the Ukrainian President??? Why didn’t the House do its job? And sooo much more!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2020
I hope Republicans & the American people realize that the totally partisan Impeachment Hoax is exacty that, a Hoax. Read the Transcripts, listen to what the President & Foreign Minister of Ukraine said (“No Pressure”). Nothing will ever satisfy the Do Nothing, Radical Left Dems!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2020
I loathe this man. Even with a win, he whines like a loser.
Schiff is killing it though.
Rep. Adam Schiff: Pres. Trump “has not changed. He will not change. He has made that clear himself…A man without character or ethical compass will never find his way.” https://t.co/NbEEwk7Bvr pic.twitter.com/CZEajvmJuW— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) February 3, 2020
Rep. Adam Schiff to senators on Pres. Trump: “I do not ask you to convict him because truth or right or decency matters nothing to him, but because we have proven our case and it matters to you.”— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) February 3, 2020
“You are decent. He is not who you are.” https://t.co/NbEEwk7Bvr pic.twitter.com/EZayNEzHAf
Rep. Adam Schiff concludes his closing argument: “It may be midnight in Washington—but the sun will rise again. I put my faith in the optimism of the Founders. You should too.” https://t.co/lCrIAfTgkR pic.twitter.com/ES6FjxjOjs— ABC News (@ABC) February 3, 2020
“We must look at the history of this presidency and to the character of this president, or lack of character, and ask: Can we be confident he will not continue to try to cheat in that very election?…The short, plain, sad & incontestable answer is: no you can’t.” –@RepAdamSchiff pic.twitter.com/hQokZIGHEN— House Intelligence Committee (@HouseIntel) February 3, 2020
The latest Iowa poll from Monmouth University found Biden and Sanders making up the top tier of candidates, with Biden receiving 23% support among likely Democratic caucusgoers and Sanders with 21%. Buttigieg landed at 16%, Elizabeth Warren at 15% and Amy Klobuchar at 10% as the other candidates in double digits.A CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released in January showed Iowa’s likely caucusgoers closely divided among Sanders (20%), Warren (17%), Buttigieg (16%) and Biden (15%).Biden and Sanders are at the front of the field for the Democratic national primary, according to the most recent CNN Poll of Polls released Friday.
Iowa caucus winning chances:— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 3, 2020
Sanders: 2 in 5 (41%)
Biden: 1 in 3 (32%)
Buttigieg: 1 in 7 (14%)
Warren: 1 in 10 (10%)
Klobuchar: 1 in 40 (2%)https://t.co/Q2hBgpjs39
Each campaign has a kind of enthusiasm engine that needs fuel if it’s going to zoom across the finish line ahead of expectations in the final lap. All the campaigns know that beating Donald Trump is what consistently polls as the top concern for Democratic voters, and in their closing arguments each has crafted an electability argument that they are stressing.
Sanders and Biden both say they can win blue-collar workers that Clinton lost to Trump. Warren pitches her more-ambitious-than-Biden-but-not-as-radical-as-Bernie agenda as the key to both exciting and uniting Democrats. Buttigieg, pointing to Bill Clinton and Obama, argues that Democrats win only when they nominate a fresh candidate of generational change.
But what creates real enthusiasm in each campaign isn’t electability. There’s another layer, deeper and more molten, that drives the activist cores of these campaigns and — especially in this historically unique field — it’s these sometimes hidden layers that may determine Monday’s results.
There’s a lot that’s not often conveyed in campaign coverage but that can be felt deeply on the ground. The conventions of the news business can often be limiting in this regard. What is generally considered campaign news is swings in polls, juicy quotes from surrogates, candidate gaffes, internal staff drama, policy fights, etc. What we are covering when we are at a campaign speech or rally is mostly theater: there’s a stage and a performer and an audience. And the artifice that goes into these productions can create a lot of cynicism, which is mostly healthy and is necessary for accountability journalism.
The process itself is relatively straightforward. In short, Democratic voters at each caucus site gather into groups, based on their preferred candidate. Each group is counted to determine whether a particular candidate is “viable,” usually at least 15% of support from voters, which depends on the caucus site.
If a candidate fails to get 15% of support, then that party can convince others to join their group or abandon theirs in favor of another candidate and so on and so forth, until a candidate eventually comes out victorious and is awarded a majority of the 41 delegate state equivalents. (The caucus for Republican voters in Iowa is a simpler secret-ballot process.)
The caucuses begin at 8pm tonight, with the first set of results likely to be revealed between 8:30 and 8:45pm. And while the caucuses themselves won’t be televised, there are plenty of ways to keep up.
UPDATE – FEBRUARY 6: Well, an app went awry, and Trump voters called and broke down the phone number for precincts to report. This is Day 4 and still no final results.
Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez called for a recanvass of all results in Iowa on Thursday, as the state's Democratic Party continues to struggle to verify the data from Monday night's caucuses.— Dan Merica (@merica) February 6, 2020
w/ @jeffzeleny: https://t.co/qFE4miFNkG