Yeah. I was in Europe for a couple of weeks. They weren’t following the election as much as I thought they might have been. And so I took a break from it too. I can’t remember what was going on when I left, but it sure was big and sure isn’t a headline now. I think it was about how Donald Trump had denied groping women and then a parade of them were coming forward saying how they were groped or kissed without consent.
Then there was, last Friday, another BOMBSHELL (the media’s word) which, at first blush, seemed like the FBI was going to look into more emails that they had discovered on Anthony Weiner’s shared computer with Huma Abedin (a Hillary Clinton aide). In other words, it WAS a bombshell — a shell without a bomb. On closer examination, it turned out to be just what it LOOKED like — nothing (at this point). Apparently, if you can create a headline with the word “Clinton” and “email” in close proximity, that is enough to send the media into apoplectic fits, even if there is no actual email contents to report on.
I am reminded about what I heard last week, and heard again today. Despite the crazy rollercoaster of news and constant scandals and non-scandals, this is STATISTICALLY a rather dull election. Since the conventions, Hillary has been roughly 5 points ahead of Trump, give or take 5 points. That means she has been close to even and sometimes has a double digit lead. But Trump really has never held a secure lead…. not once. In fact, while Hillary cannot get below 42%, Trump cannot get above it.
The latest election polls: https://t.co/Bz8GHJMsf9 pic.twitter.com/DAjuUsJbe0
— NYT Graphics (@nytgraphics) November 1, 2016
And it is worse when you switch from the popular vote to the electoral college. Clinton has a thick blue line: all the New England states, NY, PA, DE, MD, VA, and DC. And to that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois, and the Pacific Coast (California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii) and you have a total of 249 SOLID BLUE electoral votes. With only 270 needed.
Click the map to create your own at That’s how lopsided this thing is. Hell, a win in Florida puts her on top.
But she has significant leads in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
At the end of the day, this is Clinton’s election. And what you’re hearing now is a lot of wind and drama. The Cook Political Report:
However, despite the recent tightening, Trump remains behind in the polls. And, his path to 270 electoral votes remains decidedly and almost impossibly narrow. Polling taken over the weekend suggests that voters are reacting to the FBI story in a typically partisan manner. Could it have an impact on enthusiasm? Perhaps. And, it also could get reluctant GOPers to show up to cast a vote for down ballot GOPers to give a “check” on Clinton. But, it hasn’t upended the normal pattern/trajectory of the campaign.
The most recent polls suggest that Trump’s best chances to flip a state Obama carried in 2012 are Iowa, Ohio and Florida. Even so, North Carolina — a state Romney carried in 2012 — is looking tougher and tougher for Trump. Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado also look out of reach. Without North Carolina or Pennsylvania, it is almost impossible for him to hit 270.
The Trump campaign remains hopeful that the Rust Belt — with its white, working class voters — will be their savior. The Trump campaign says they have polling showing a tight race in Michigan as does the Survey Monkey 50-state survey. All other polling taken in the state shows Clinton with a pretty healthy lead. Democrats aren’t panicking there either, suggesting they feel confident in the numbers they are seeing.
At the end of the day, the map may not look all that different from what we are used to seeing. But the margins of victory may be the more surprising. In blue states where the white working class vote is more significant — Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin — the Democratic share of the vote is likely to be smaller than we’ve seen in the last eight years. But, in red states that are more diverse — Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina — the GOP margin is likely to be narrower than we’ve seen in recent years.
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Bottom Line: The race has tightened to its “natural resting place” with a 2-4 point lead for Clinton. However, the Electoral College math continues to favor Clinton. While she may lose Obama-held states in the Midwest like Ohio and Iowa, she’s been able to build up a pretty solid lead in states that Trump needs to win to hit 270 like Virginia and Pennsylvania. At the end of the day, voters are well-aware of the two less than ideal choices in front of them. They don’t trust Clinton. But, they don’t think that Trump has the temperament or judgment to be president. Baring any new or indictable information, it’s hard to believe that these new batch of emails will change this calculation.
Trump’s campaign managers seem to know that the math is not in their favor. They are gambling on a “second tier” win — giving up on Pennsylvania, and buying ads in New Mexico and hitting Michigan hard.