Like me yesterday, many are realizing that Trump might actually win the GOP nomination. A lot of this is spurred on by recent polls…
New polls today:
Georgia (Trump +9)
Mass (Trump +34)
Vermont (Trump +15)
N Carolina (Trump +18)
Michigan (Trump +18)
Illinois (Trump +13)— Judd Legum (@JuddLegum) February 23, 2016
… from upcoming primary states that show that Trumps appeal is broad, geographically speaking.
Kevin Drum has a graphic about the pundit realization and freakout:
I understand the reason to be alarmed. As an American, this is disastrous and embarrassing. But then again, as a progressive, isn’t this the best thing?
I should also mention this: Charlie Cook (political handicapper of the first degree) sees something in the polls that indicates that Trump’s days are numbered:
Confirming the theory that Trump’s position deteriorates as the field narrows, the NBC/WSJ poll played out four scenarios with three-way contests.
In one, Cruz was first with 32 percent, Trump second with 30 percent, and Marco Rubio third with 26 percent. In a second combination, Cruz had 38 percent, Trump 32 percent, Bush 9 percent. A third combination put Cruz first with 37 percent, Trump with 31 percent, and Kasich with 18 percent. The last put Cruz at 36 percent, Trump at 29 percent, and Carson at 12 percent.
When the poll pitted two candidates against each other, Cruz and Rubio each bested Trump by 16 points, Cruz up 56 to 40 percent, Rubio 57 to 41 percent. Trump did come out on top against Bush by 11 points, 54 to 43 percent, demonstrating just how diminished the Bush brand has become. Against the less-known Kasich, Trump was up by 8 points, 52 to 44 percent.
When asked whether someone could or could not see themselves supporting each candidate, 70 percent of GOP primary voters could see themselves potentially supporting Rubio, 28 percent could not (net plus-42 points), 65 percent could support Cruz, 33 percent could not (net plus-32), 62 percent could support Carson, 35 percent could not (net plus-27), 56 percent could support Trump, 42 percent could not (net plus-14), 49 percent could go with Kasich, 41 percent could not (net plus-8) and just 46 percent could back Bush, 53 percent could not (net minus-7). Kasich probably suffers because voters aren’t as familiar with him as they are with the other candidates. As for Bush, the family brand has just gone sour.
One poll does not make a trend, but my hunch is that we’re seeing the beginning of one. It’s not clear whether the shift is occurring because Trump’s routine has grown stale, or because he went too far in the debate, or because GOP voters have shifted their focus to picking a president rather than sending a message. Maybe even the prospect of a vacant seat on the Supreme Court has reinforced the view that this election is serious business with real consequences. Let me say it again: Trump is not going to be the Republican nominee.