Don’t Fear The Pollster

Ken AshfordElection 2012, PollsLeave a Comment

Don't worry about national polls.

Early this week, Gallup came out with a national polls showing that Romney was over Obama by 51 to 45.

You would think that is badm but you needed to look at the poll crosstabs from the previous day (when it was 50-46) and compare:

Romney's entire advantage in the poll comes from a massive lead in the South. Now sure, some of that may be Florida, but the state-level polling certainly doesn't show that. So Romney is driving up big margins in Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Mississippi and other such presidentially irrelevant states? Good for him! I'm sure that'll be cold comfort as he loses the states that actually matter in the Midwest and West.

So my advice is to either ignore the national polls, or, if you must, look closely at the crosstabs.