Romney Path To Victory Gets Bleaker

Ken AshfordElection 2012, PollsLeave a Comment

Nate Silver has an epic post today about late September polls from past years and how well they predict the eventual winner of a presidential race. Here are the highlights:

  • Obama is currently up by 3.7%. No candidate in the past 50 years has lost a lead that big.
  • No candidate with more than 47% of the vote in late September has everlost. Obama is currently  at 48.3%.
  • Big changes in the final month aren't impossible, but they've gotten rarer in the past 20 years.
  • It's not true that undecided voters tend to break for the challenger in the last few weeks of a race.

Some Republican pundits are clinging to national polls which show Obama slightly ahead or even, but we know better than that, don't we?  It's all about the polls in the pivotal swing states, and those show Obama considerably ahead.  Let's show the latest numbers:


NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 43 (LV); RV unavailable at press time

NATIONAL (GWU/Battleground for Politico): Obama 50, Romney 47

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking w/leaners): Obama 48, Romney 48

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 49, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Winston Group–R): Obama 48, Romney 46

COLORADO (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 45

FLORIDA (American Research Group): Obama 50, Romney 45

FLORIDA (Mason Dixon): Obama 48, Romney 47

FLORIDA (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 46

IOWA (American Research Group): Obama 51, Romney 44

MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Obama 54, Romney 42

MINNESOTA (Mason Dixon): Obama 48, Romney 40, Johnson 5

NORTH CAROLINA (National Research for Civitas–R): Obama 49, Romney 45

OHIO (Ohio Newspaper Group): Obama 51, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (Mercyhurst University): Obama 48, Romney 40

PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Research–R): Obama 47, Romney 45

WISCONSIN (We Ask America–R): Obama 53, Romney 41, Johnson 1

Gotta like the texture of this.