Nate Silver has an epic post today about late September polls from past years and how well they predict the eventual winner of a presidential race. Here are the highlights:
- Obama is currently up by 3.7%. No candidate in the past 50 years has lost a lead that big.
- No candidate with more than 47% of the vote in late September has everlost. Obama is currently at 48.3%.
- Big changes in the final month aren't impossible, but they've gotten rarer in the past 20 years.
- It's not true that undecided voters tend to break for the challenger in the last few weeks of a race.
Some Republican pundits are clinging to national polls which show Obama slightly ahead or even, but we know better than that, don't we? It's all about the polls in the pivotal swing states, and those show Obama considerably ahead. Let's show the latest numbers:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 46
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 43 (LV); RV unavailable at press time
NATIONAL (GWU/Battleground for Politico): Obama 50, Romney 47
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking w/leaners): Obama 48, Romney 48
NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 49, Romney 46
NATIONAL (Winston Group–R): Obama 48, Romney 46
COLORADO (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 45
FLORIDA (American Research Group): Obama 50, Romney 45
FLORIDA (Mason Dixon): Obama 48, Romney 47
FLORIDA (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 46
IOWA (American Research Group): Obama 51, Romney 44
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Obama 54, Romney 42
MINNESOTA (Mason Dixon): Obama 48, Romney 40, Johnson 5
NORTH CAROLINA (National Research for Civitas–R): Obama 49, Romney 45
OHIO (Ohio Newspaper Group): Obama 51, Romney 46
PENNSYLVANIA (Mercyhurst University): Obama 48, Romney 40
PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Research–R): Obama 47, Romney 45
WISCONSIN (We Ask America–R): Obama 53, Romney 41, Johnson 1
Gotta like the texture of this.