Bouncy Bouncy

Ken AshfordElection 2012, PollsLeave a Comment

Well, the daily tracking polls of Gallup and Rassmusson (as well as other polls) indicate there was a definite Obama bounce from the convention last week, despite blah economic numbers coming out last Friday.


There are two state polls that I wanted to note: one from Ohio, and one from North Carolina (released a few minutes ago).

Both are from PPP.

PPP's polling shows Obama up 5 points in Ohio.  This is an extremely large amount for the MOST important swing state.  Although ROmney can still win even if he loses in Ohio, his path to victory is very narrow.

Secondly, PPP shows that Obama is ahead of Romney, 49% to 48%, in North Carolina.  This shows a distinct upward trend.  If these numbers are borne out by other pollsters, this means that N Carolina is in play (as swing states go, many were prepared to concede it as a Romney gimme).

In any event, if you're Team Romney, this is NOT where you want to be after the two conventions.  What's more, most polls show that only a very small percent of the electorate is undecided.  That means there is less "swing" to be had, even in the swing states.  He may have to woo some Obama backers, which means that he's either got to have some pretty amazing debates, or Obama has to really step in it or get involved in a scandel.

I must say, from what I saw and heard of the Sunday shows, Romney and Ryan didn't look good.  Ryan refused to come up with specifics for what loopholes they would cut from the income taxes.  And Romney seemed to embrace some aspects of Obamacare, specifically the ban against pre-existing condition denials.  Unfortunately, no journalist followed up with Romney and asked him how the pre-existing condition deal could be done without a public mandate, and just hours later, his campaign quietly told a conservative website that he actually opposes those provisions of Obamacare:

In reference to how Romney would deal with those with preexisting conditions and young adults who want to remain on their parents’ plans, a Romney aide responded that there had been no change in Romney’s position and that “in a competitive environment, the marketplace will make available plans that include coverage for what there is demand for. He was not proposing a federal mandate to require insurance plans to offer those particular features.

Fine, but being wishy-washy doesn't help either.

So, it's an uphill climb for Romney & Co.  Fortunately, they have the money, and the PACs with obscene amounts of money.

UPDATE:  I was wrong.  After flipping once yesterday on the pre-existing condition issue, the Romney campaign flipped back again.

UPDATE #2:  Well, I guess they took four positions yesterday.  I don't know – you figure it out.