Nate Silver Handicaps The Election

Ken AshfordElection 2012Leave a Comment

A lot to digest here, especially if you are a stats geek, but — as things stand now, Nate Silver predicts a narrow Obama win in November:

The forecast currently calls for Mr. Obama to win roughly 290 electoral votes, but outcomes ranging everywhere from about 160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible, given the long lead time until the election and the amount of news that could occur between now and then. Both polls and economic indicators are a pretty rough guide five months before an election.

Here's part of the analysis….

Scenario Analysis

How often the following situations occurred during repeated simulated elections.

  • Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate): 0.3%
  • Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points): 5.8%
  • Obama wins popular vote: 62.6%
  • Romney wins popular vote: 37.4%
  • Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college: 3.1%
  • Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college: 2.2%
  • Democratic landslide (double-digit popular vote margin): 11.7%
  • Republican landslide (double-digit popular vote margin): 3.4%
  • Map exactly the same as in 2008: 1.1%
  • Map exactly the same as in 2004: <0.1%
  • Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008: 85.9%
  • Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008: 28.1%