The latest poll from PPP shows no movement from one week ago, meaning that FOR Amendment One is ahead of AGAINST Amendment One by 14 points:
Opposition is rising slightly with Republicans, independents, and African Americans, from 17% to 21% with the GOP, from 43% to 46% with independents, and from 39% to 43% with black voters. Democrats on the whole are opposed by a 54-42 spread. Reports of strong youth turnout in parts of the state could be a good sign for opponents; voters under the age of 30 oppose the amendment by 26 points, while the elder age brackets all support it by spreads of nine to 24 points—though that is down from margins of 16 to 32 points last week.
The good news for the amendment’s opponents is that more voters are now aware of the amendment’s consequences, and if all voters were informed of those consequences, the amendment would fail by a 38-46 margin, the same as last week. A 40% plurality now knows that the amendment would ban both same-sex marriage and civil unions, versus 36% in the previous survey. Those who know what the amendment would do are against it by 22 points, but they are outweighed by the strong support from the uneducated.
As part of the overall 22-point shift, Democrats move 21 points, Republicans 24 points, and independents 16 points against the amendment when told it would ban both marriage and civil unions for gay couples.
The reason this message has an impact is that 55% of these primary voters want same-sex couples to at least have the same legal rights as married heterosexual couples, if not full marriage equality. That includes 67% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and even 35% of Republicans.
“Voters who understand what the amendment does are opposed to it,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But there’s a lot of education left to be done in this final week of the campaign.”
PPP surveyed 982 likely North Carolina primary voters from April 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.