Election Day 2009

Ken AshfordElection 2010Leave a Comment

I actually saw someone with an "I voted" sticker.

The New York Times has a nice write-up of three elections to watch, since they (supposedly) foretell the political winds. 

Personally, I think the story is already written on what these elections mean: We're seeing a complete break-up of the Republican party — and all-out political war between the purists (the tea party people) and the moderates.  Certainly, the Democratic party won't benefit from the loss of enthusiasm that it had one year ago, but the divided GOP will hurt the Republicans more.

The NY 23rd race is actually kind of amusing to me.  The tea baggers think that if they get a "win" here, they have some sort of proof that there movement is a legitimate one, and it's time to carry forth nationwide.  But that itself is a joke.  The NY 23rd is one of the most conservative districts in the country outside of the South.  That seat has been held by a Republican 70 times.  It hardly would "mean" anything, if a conservative won there.  That's like a liberal Democrat winning in Vermont, and socialists thinking it means America is ready for socialism.

Nate Silver adds:

This deserves a deeper exposition, but I don't think it's entirely correct to characterize the fight between Hoffman and Scozzafava as a fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party. Rather, its a fight between the institutional Republican Party and a group of people who feel like the Republican Party may not be worth fighting for. They might even prefer to be on their own, for while the upside is that Republicans are re-branded as conservatives, the risk is that conservatives are re-branded as Republicans.

RELATED:  Speaking of NY-23, it took Fox News two days to get the story right.  Over and over again, they reported that the Republican candidate dropped out of the race to throw her support to Hoffman, the third-party conservative candidate.  Watch:


In reality, she threw her support behind the Democratic candidate.