Marc Ambinder has the full memo from Rick Davis, Campaign Manager of the McCain campaign. It was released yesterday.
I just wanted to highlight a few of his points:
All the major polls have shown a tightening in the race and a significant narrowing of the numbers. In John McCain's typical pattern, he is closing strong and surprising the pundits. We believe this race is winnable, and if the trajectory continues, we will surpass the 270 Electoral votes needed on Election Night.
Uh, yes. There has been some minor "tightening". However, "if the trajectory continues", Obama is still way ahead in the national polls:
More Rick Davis:
Iowa – Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama's lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain's column.
One wonders what the magic Iowa numbers are, because….
Back to Mr. Davis:
Ohio and Pennsylvania - Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio.
JFK lost Ohio in 1960, FDR lost Ohio in 1944, Grover Cleveland lost Ohio in 1892. The Ohio trivia fact is that no Republican has ever taken the White House without Ohio.
Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.
Translation: The fact that Arizona, McCain's home state, has moved into the toss-up column is a devastating development for Obama.
And my favorite part, at the end:
In short: the McCain campaign is surging in the final 72 hours. Our grassroots campaign is vibrant and communicating to voters in a very powerful way. Our television presence is strong. And, we have a secret ingredient – A candidate who will never quit and who will never stop fighting for you and for your families.
Pssst. Rick. Maybe, just maybe, you should reveal that "secret" to the public. Now might be a good time.
It has to be frustrating for McCain campaign workers to read this stuff. Unless they're drunk on KoolAid, too.