Final Predictions

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment


Also, in my local elections:

  • Foxx (R) beats Carter (D) for House 5th District

  • Perdue (D) beats McCrory (R) for Governor

Ballot initiative predictions:

  • Ban on gay marriages (ballot initiatives in California, Arizona, and Florida) — all defeated

  • Arkansas ballot initiative to prevent gay couples from adopting babies — passed

  • Colorado ballot initiative to ban all abortion — defeated

  • South Dakota ballot initiative to ban abortion except in certain cases like health of mother, rape or incest — passed

  • California ballot initiative require doctors to inform parents of any minor seeking abortion — passed

  • Massachusetts ballot initiative to make marijuana possession a subject to a civil penalty (a $100 fine), rather than a criminal violation — passed

  • San Francisco ballot initiative decriminalizing prostitution — defeated (barely)

Other predictions:

  • Popular vote in presidential elections: Obama 52.2%  McCain 46.6%  Other: 1.2%
  • If Obama wins the popular vote by over 10%, you'll be hearing the phrase "cellphone effect" a lot
  • If Obama wins the popular vote by under 3% (or if he loses), you'll be hearing the phrase "Bradley effect" a lot
  • Number of hours after Election Day before Limbaugh or O'Reilly attributes Obama election win to fraud/conspiracy of some sort:  12
  • Time that CNN and MSNBC call the election for Obama: 10:35 pm
  • Time that FOX news calls the election for Obama:  10:55 pm. 

UPDATE:  Oops, my graphic is wrong.  It should be Obama 349, McCain 189.  For what it's worth, my prediction map is very close to that of Karl Rove, except Rove gave Missouri to McCain. Markos gives Obama 390 EVs — my map, plus he gives North Carolina, Georgia, and Indiana to Obama.  I think that's all quite possible.