Alaska Senate Race: It Ain’t Over, Folks

Ken AshfordCongress, Election 2008Leave a Comment

Maybe the convicted felon didn't win after all.

Right now, Stevens is up 106,351 votes to Begich's 102,998.  That's a gap of only 3,353 votes.

However, according to the Alaska Division of Elections, there are over 81,000 absentee, early vote, and questionable ballots to be counted.  (63,000 votes if you ignore all the questionable ballots).

Nate Silver chunked the data and determined that, of the early votes counted so far, Begich got 61% of them.  Looking at the districts where early votes and absentee ballots come from, and assuming voting patterns are the same, Silver predicts that Begich picks up a net 6,450 votes, which would make him the winner — assuming there is no cheating.

Democrats picked up a 57th Senator with the squeaker win in Oregon.

If Begich wins Alaska, that would make 58.

If Al Franken wins Minnesota on the recount, that would make 59.

And if Martin somehow upsets Chambliss in the Georgia run-off (because neither candidate got over 50%), which is possible, but a slight uphill battle, that would make 60.

I predicted 58 before the elections.  I still stand by that.