Looking Good

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Here’s one analysis:

The current prediction is Obama 375, McCain 163 with Virginia as the state that puts Obama over the top and West Virginia as the closest state. Obama’s surge in the national polls kicks Missouri and North Carolina over to the blue side. West Virginia is about the only additional state Obama could win unless the McCain campaign gets even worse. If Obama maintains his current national lead, new state polls will eventually show the shift as well. Tip of the hat to pollster.com for the compendium of links to polls.

Obama Base (202 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Wisconsin (Obama +9.5) 212 EV
Michigan (Obama +9.1) 229 EV
Colorado (Obama +8.0) 238 EV
Pennsylvania (Obama +7.8) 259 EV
Minnesota (Obama +7.8) 269 EV
Virginia (Obama +5.2) 282 EV
New Hampshire (Obama +5.1) 286 EV
Nevada (Obama +5.1) 291 EV
Ohio (Obama +4.3) 311 EV
Indiana (Obama +4.2) 322 EV
Florida (Obama +3.2) 349 EV
Missouri (Obama +2.1) 360 EV
North Carolina (Obama +1.9) 375 EV
West Virginia (McCain +1.4) 163 EV
Montana (McCain +6.8) 158 EV

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today’s conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.