No Path To Victory

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

It was clear to me that Hillary lacked a clear path to victory even before Pennsylvania.  Now, in the wake of the North Carolina blowout and the Indiana squeaker, I don’t see how she has a path at all, clear or otherwise.

She’s behind in the popular vote.  Even if you "give" her the votes in Florida and Michigan (the latter of which, Obama wasn’t even on the ballot), she’s still behind.

She’s behind in the delegate count.  Obama is within 200 of the mark.

The superdelegates have got to be coming out for Obama, recognizing that he is the clear favorite of Democratic voters.

What can Clinton do now to win?  Absolutely nothing.

She has to think about her political future — either the VP spot (if she wants it), or a future run in 4 or 8 years.

I’m not saying she should drop out.  But she’s got to change the tone of her campaign and be more concilliatory — for the good of the party and the presumptive nominee.

It looks, however, like she has read the writing on the wall.  Not only did she cancel her morning show appearances this morning, but we have learned this morning that she has cancelled all public appearances for tomorrow.

It’s over.  Not signed, sealed and delivered — but it’s over.

UPDATE: On a conference call with reporters this morning, the Clinton campaign says there have been "no discussions" of ending the campaign.

Don’t believe it.  I’m sure it was discussed.

And although Clinton backer George McGovern says it’s time for her to withdraw, and do did Wesley Clark, it looks like the campaign is forging on, putting all their eggs in the argument that Michigan and Florida delegates should count.

I’m not sure I would put much stock in the campaign conference call.  I think that’s the campaign talking, and not Hillary.  They have to take that "full steam ahead" position until a decision and strategy has been laid out.