Pennsylvania Getting Close

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Everyone has assumed, quite correctly, that Hillary will take Pennsylvania in the next primary.  She’s enjoyed double digits leads in every poll for months.  Even the Obama campaign isn’t cmapaigning hard there, choosing instead to focus on later states like North Carolina and Indiana.

But whoa there. Rassmusson just came out with a poll showing that the Hillary stronghold on Pennsylvania is not what we all thought:





Not sure


In the same poll a week ago, it was a 10-point spread.

Open Left‘s Chris Bowers:

"It is starting to seem increasingly likely that Obama will not lose superdelegates [by] any substantial margin, if indeed he loses them at all. I have talked to a few publicly undecided superdelegates over the past week, and the range was anywhere from leaning Obama but waiting, to in favor of Obama but not ready to go public yet. […] There is an outside chance that a big Clinton win in Pennsylvania might upset the campaign a bit. Still, I expect that Obama will equal Clinton in superdelegates by the week following the North Carolina primary, and that Clinton will not gain any ground in terms of pledged delegates during the April 22nd-May 6th period. Given that Obama will also reach 1,627 pledged delegates on May 20th, I am starting to believe that the campaign will end in either May or June. Clinton can continue on to the convention if she likes, but when Obama reaches 1,627 and equals Clinton’s in superdelegates, few people will continue to take her campaign seriously. Hopefully, it won’t end in a blaze of self-destructive sour grapes."

UPDATE: SurveyUSA also has new Pennsylvania poll out, showing Hillary with a still-healthy 12-point lead, although that, too, is down, from 19 points in the last poll.

Incidentally, I know the Texas and Mississippi primaries were a while ago, but the counting is complete and the states have now certified the results.  MSNBC tell us:

NBC News has allocated the remaining nine Texas caucus delegates, 7-2, in favor of Obama. That means the Illinois senator has won the most delegates, 99-94, as a result of both the Texas primary and caucuses.

Obama now leads by 129 in the overall delegate count, 1637-1508. Obama leads by 162 pledged delegates, 1415-1253. (There remains just one delegate unallocated from Democrats Abroad.) Clinton leads among superdelegates, 255-222, per the NBC News Political Unit count.

Also note, the Obama campaign has passed around that it has picked up two delegates in Mississippi, showing Obama with a 20-13 lead. NBC News’ count remains 19-14 for Obama so far.