Election 2008 Analysis: NH Results

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Well, it’s 10:00 and the story is Clinton.  She hasn’t won (yet), although she is leading, proving the polls and pundits (myself included) very very wrong.

This means, of course, that even if Obama ekes out a win, he still "lost".

Odd.  Two weeks ago the Clinton nomination was "inevitable".  As of yesterday and this morning, many were saying that Clinton dropping out was "inevitable".

Kids, we got ourselves a race.

On the GOP side, we all got it right.  McCain.

UPDATE:  I’m reading and hearing this a lot:

I wouldn’t be surprised if this inane "Clinton crying" pseudo-story winds up redounding to her benefit; it’s a stark reminder of how much sexist BS there is out there which, in turn, gets people back to thinking about how the first woman president in American history would be a pretty damn transformative event all on its own terms.

WMUR at 10:22 pm

Democratic Presidential Primary
Candidate Votes Percent Winner
Hillary Clinton 64,743 39%
Barack Obama 60,322 37%
John Edwards 27,578 17%
Bill Richardson 7,889 5%
Dennis Kucinich 2,415 1%
Chris Dodd 392 0%
Joe Biden 363 0%
Mike Gravel 230 0%
Precincts Reporting – 188 out of 30162%

Fox exit polls say Clinton is garnering 13% more of the female vote (Clinton lost the female vote by five points to Obama in Iowa). Clinton also enjoys a ten point advantage among union voters. Clinton also is beating Obama among seniors and lower income voters. On the other hand, Obama is pummeling Clinton in the youth vote by 20+ points; Obama is beating Hillary among men. But he’s also dwarfing Hillary among voters that say they want ‘change’ — whatever that means.

It also looks like the Clinton "revival" largely comes from Manchester and Nashua.  Concord went Obama hugely, as did most small towns.

UPDATE (10:30 pm):   NBC calls it for Clinton