Election ’08: NH Poll

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

The first New Hampshire poll of the season from Suffolk is out. It has a small sample size (212 in the Democratic sample), so its value may be limited.  The poll was taken February 24-28.

Democrats:

Clinton: 28
Obama: 26
Edwards: 17
Biden: 3
Kucinich: 2
Richardson: 2
Unsure: 17

This is pretty much what I expect, although Hillary, the putative frontrunner, has got to be concerned about Obama’s numbers.  He’s still on the upsurge, and — barring any huge faux pas — could easily surpass her in the coming months.

Republicans:

Giuliani: 37
McCain: 27
Romney: 17
Ron Paul: 2
Tom Tancredo: 2
No opinion: 12

Giuliani is a frontrunner, but most people don’t really know him other than his role as "Mayor of 9/11".  He’s going to have a hard time winning over social conservatives (what with his multiple marriages and cross-dressing) [Update:  See?  Told ya’.], and I think he’s going to implode at some point during the campaign.  Romney, who is from neighboring Massachusetts, really should have done better in this poll.

But as for the sad state of Republican nominees, read Matt Yglesius.

On Giuliani:

A thrice-married occasional cross-dresser with a penchant for seizing guns while turning a blind eye to illegal immigrants who also thinks cutting taxes on the rich is the be-all and end-all of economic policy isn’t going to inspire anyone to wonder what’s the matter with Kansas. Next to Giuliani, everyone looks like the candidate for values voters.

On McCain:

[H]is pathetic decline is probably a sad story. To me, it’s more like a funny one — like when that guy slipped and fell down a flight of stairs and it all looked very painful but he was a huge jerk anyway. McCain is old. And sick. And obviously so. He has the misfortune of being both the most conservative candidate in the race and the one most hated by conservatives. His website makes it look like he’s campaigning for F├╝hrer. Worst of all, George W. Bush’s Iraq policy is so crazy that it’s managed to ruin McCain’s devilishly clever positioning on Iraq.

On Romney:

Mitt Romney is the most freakishly transparent liar I’ve ever witnessed. His party is desperately reliant on playing the Christian card on election day, but most traditionalist Christians deny that his religion counts as Christianity.