The Shift

Ken AshfordElection 2006Leave a Comment

Who voted Democratic this year?  Seems like everybody.  Below is a chart listing the shifts in all sorts of demographic groups (compared to how those groups voted in 2004):

Women: +15
Men: +11

Whites: +14
African-Americans: +1
Latinos: +30
Asian: +13
Other: -1

18-29: +13
30-44: +15
45-59: +10
60 and over: +10

Under $15K: +10
$15K-$30K: +10
$30K-$50K: +12
$50K-$75K: +15
$75K-$100K: +10
$100K-$150K: +10
$150K-$200K: +12
$200K and over: +20

Union membership
Union members: +15
Non-union: +11

No high school: +28
High school: +16
Some college: +12
College Graduate: +6
Post-graduate degree: +6

Protestant: +9
Catholic: +16
Jewish: +26
Other: -5
None: +16
White Evangelical / Born Again: +15

Religious attendance
More than weekly: +5
Weekly: +10
Monthly: +17
A few times a year: +13
Never: +11

Liberal: +4
Moderate: +13
Conservative: +11

Party ID
Democrat: +8
Independent: +17
Republican: +4

Marital Status
Not Married: +12
Married: +12
Married with children: +16

Now, you have to ignore shifts of 10% or so, because it seems that almost every demographic group experienced a shift of that magnitude.

What stands out?

Well, Latinos for one.  Obviously, the whole immigration issue raised by Republicans — along with its not-so-subtle gringo-bashing turned off Latino voters in a big way.  Such a shame, especially since it was one of Karl Rove’s strategies to woo and keep Latino voters.

Then there’s the wealthy.  A bit perplexing that, since they were the ones who benefitted most from Bush’s tax cuts.  Apparently, there was a bit of guilt there, or perhaps complacency.  Perhaps, because they were so comfortable with their wallet, they could focus on Iraq or corruption or something other than economics.

The under-educated also shifted dramatically toward Democrats.  As did the Jewish vote.  I think both those were inevitable at some point.

I find it interesting that the religious vote, especially for part-time religious people, swung so heavily to the Democrats.  No doubt, this was due to the overreaching of the GOP’s bed-partners — people like Falwell and Dobson, as well as the purveyors of phony wars like the "War on Christmas".  People of faith said "enough already" to all that.

And finally, you have moderates and independents.  Well, no surprise there.  I suspect, for those people, it was less of a swing to Democrats and more of a swing away from Republicans.

Anyway, there’s the numbers.