I’m Calling It . . .

Ken AshfordElection 2004Leave a Comment

. . . against my better judgment. As a Red Sox fan, I know that you should never declare victory until the final out. (I know, we broke the curse this year, but still . . .)

But I’m calling it a Kerry victory — now — and here are some (very bad) reasons why.

(1) I pulled my back and I’m not sure how far into the night I can last.

(2) "Democracy Plaza" is Rockefeller Center. That’s all. I can’t deal with "Democracy Plaza" anymore.

(3) Wonkette’s little bird. Conventional wisdom is that Democrats vote LATE, so if Wonkette’s numbers are even remotely correct, it STILL looks good for Kerry. (NOTE: I think her early exit polls are the same as Slate’s. (UPDATE: The later, but more accurate, "unofficial" exit polls are even better for Kerry — see here)

(4) High voter turnout favors the challenger. Record high voter turnout REALLY favors the challenger.

(5) Right-wing blog cites are urging their readers to behave in the face of defeat, except for those which are not. Either way, there seems to be the spector of defeat in right-wing blogosphere land.

(6) Same reason as always: No President with <50% approval rating as ever been re-elected. Case closed.

If some of you intend to really get into watching the returns tonight, you must read this must-read about exit polls. You need to know for your own self how much (or how little) you want to trust them. But Icy Hot patches await me, and I think I’m going to call it a Kerry victory. Feel free to send me some Dewey-Truman jibes — or (ugh!) Koolaid references. I’ll read them all in the morning!!