Final Thoughts and Predictions

Ken AshfordElection 2004Leave a Comment

1. Kerry has the momentum going into the election. He will win the popular vote: 48.8% to 47.8%. More importantly, Kerry will win the electoral college: 280 to 258.

The battleground state breakdown will be:

NH, PA, NJ, MI, MN, FL, NM, WI for Kerry

NV, OH, IA, MO for Bush . . .

although we won’t know the results for many of these states until early Wednesday. Florida and/or Wisconsin will be the tightest. No upsets in non-battleground states, but Arkansas will give Bush a bigger run for his money than expected.

If I am wrong, then the first indication will be when NJ fails to have a clear winner by midnight. If that’s the case, then turn off the TV and go to bed. You will wake up in the morning with Bush being President.

2. The "second headline" for the election (underneath "Kerry Wins") will be the strength of the (Kerry-leaning) youth vote, which all polls have universally underestimated and undersampled.

3. Highest voter turnout ever. For weeks, the right wing has been saying that the left has been motivated by its anti-Bush feelings, rather than pro-Kerry feelings. Yup. You better believe it. Just watch how much.

4. Yes, there will be fighting and lawsuits afterwards . . . by both parties. The public will not stomach it for very long, and it will all go away.

5. The Republican party will fall into disarray as neo-cons fight the Reagan conservatives for the soul of the party. Not to mention fiscal conservatives who want to regain their voice. And then the fight between social (religious) conservatives and the "Arnold" (socially liberal) conservatives. Sadly, they’ll pull it together by 2008 — they always do.

6. There will be no honeymoon for Kerry.