Nate Silver's polling models are giving President Obama a 91.4% chance of winning, with 314 electoral votes compared to Mitt Romney's 223.
ARIZONA Phoenix Sheriff Joe Arpaio, now eighty years old, is facing his most serious challenger in a long time. Paul Penzone is struggling with name recognition, but the race has been tightening in recent weeks. In the newly-created 9th Congressional District Kyrsten Sinema, a former school social worker and defense lawyer, is slightly favored to become the first openly bisexual Congressperson in American … Read More
The Washington Post asked people to give their election predictions. And Jim Cramer, who gives advice to people on their money, shows what a complete factless man he can be.
I was going to write a post about who is going to win tomorrow and why it looks REALLY good for Obama. But the New York Times has an excellent interactive doo-widgey that explains it graphically. It's totally awesome. For those who don't click through, here's the bottom line: With the swing states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, … Read More
Cheaters: A Clackamas County elections worker is under criminal investigation for tampering with ballots, WW has learned. The underlying allegation is that the woman, whose name has not been released, filled in blanks on ballots turned into the county for the Nov. 6 general election. Sources familiar with the incident say their understanding is that the woman filled in a straight Republican ticket … Read More
David Frum, GOP speechwriter, is one of those rare reasonable Republicans. He hates the Tea Party and the extreme turn to the crazy right that his party has taken. Today he endorsed Mitt Romney, with some bizarre reasoning: The congressional Republicans have shown themselves a destructive and irrational force in American politics. But we won't reform the congressional GOP by … Read More
The Economist, the world's leading economics magazine, will announce its endorsement of Barack Obama, says Forbes. The Economist said it would have chosen Romney if he had maintained his positions from the first debate, or promoted himself as the Romney that ran Massachusetts in a bipartisan way. Even then, however, Massachusetts is a solid Democratic state, with very few Republicans in … Read More
The people in Ohio are getting KILLED with political ads. This YouTube video is one half hour of TV programming (the local news at noon of the CBS affiliate, yesterday, in Columbus Ohio) — condensed to 3 minutes and 30 seconds. Most of the ads are for conservative candidates and casuses. If you didn't have the patience to watch … Read More
This is as of last night — the predictive models of Nate Silver (top left), Andrew Tanenbaum (top right), Sam Wang (bottom left) and Josh Putnam (bottom right). The average of the models now gives Obama 312 electoral votes.
You know, one year ago, everybody on the right wanted Christie to run for president. I mean, everybody. And he would have easily trounced Romney in the primary. Can't help wondering what it would have been like if Christie actually had run and won the nomination…. and then Sandy came along. Somehow, I don't think would have been this cordial.
The state of Ohio is perhaps the most critical swing state this election, and the latest polls are strong evidence that President Obama's got it locked up. Via Nate Silver on Twitter: 7 polls released in Ohio in past 48 hours: Obama +2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +5, Obama +5, Obama +5. #notthatcomplicated — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) October 31, … Read More
It was an awkward question: how does a campaign promise to cancel a political rally then hold it anyway? For Mitt Romney, it was simply a matter of rebranding. In Ohio, yesterday, the Republican wanted credit for being sensitive to the victims of Hurricane Sandy and canceling a scheduled rally. He also wanted to hold the rally. So the same … Read More
By lying, and getting called out on it. It's not just Chrysler. A radio ad for Mitt Romney includes General Motors in his campaign's false claims that, because of President Barack Obama, American auto manufacturers will be moving jobs from the U.S. to China, and GM is not happy with Romney: "At this stage, we're looking at Hubble telescope-length distances between campaign … Read More
Romney's NOT campaigning today in Ohio, so listen to how he's talking to an audience today in Ohio at a Romney "storm relief event" after they show a Romney promotional film: “We’re counting on Ohio. I know the people of the Atlantic Coast are counting on Ohio and the rest of our states,” he said, after urging them to donate … Read More