18 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq in the last four days…
…including eight U.S. soldiers who died in gunbattles and bomb blasts Monday in Baghdad — the most killed in a single day in the capital since July 2005.
Polls Show GOP Hurt
The survey shows that by 41%-18%, Americans say recent news developments have made them less favorable toward continued Republican control of Congress; by 34%-23% they called themselves more favorably inclined toward Democratic control. It also shows a decline in Mr. Bush’s job approval rating to 39% from 42% earlier this month.
Even more problematic for Republicans’ campaign positions, the survey shows that a 46% plurality of Americans now believes the war in Iraq is hurting the nation’s ability to win the war against terrorism. That’s up from 32% earlier this month…
By 57%-37%, voters say that America’s safety from terrorism does not depend on success in Iraq, which has been a central assertion of Mr. Bush and Republican congressional candidates. And by 61%-29%, voters say Iraq is now in a state of civil war – a conclusion the White House has tried to forestall in the belief it would further erode support for Mr. Bush’s policy there. Even Republicans, by 47%-39%, share that assessment.
Everything is hurting the GOP. The NIE estimate confirming that the Iraq War is helping terrorists. Abramoff influence-peddling. Bill Frist saying that the Taliban should rule Afghanistan. Colin Powell saying he was fired. The Woodward book showing all the Bush lies.
And now, Foley-pedophile-gate.
The New York Daily News reported today:
"Congress has never been faced with so many criminal corruption scandals at once, ranging from suspicions of sexual misconduct to the biggest influence-peddling scam to hit Washington." American University historian Allan Lichtman added, "You’ve got to scour awfully hard to find anything compared to what we have now in Congress. It’s an explosion of corruption and scandal."
Yup.
And Josh Marshall adds:
Is it me or is all hell breaking loose in this country’s politics? We’re in the last month of an election cycle and there are maybe four or five stories, each of which could totally dominate the national political news on their own. And each is flaming out of control at once. You’ve got the Foley debacle. The revelations in the Woodward book. The NIE revelations that almost seem like old news now. A major part of the pre-9/11 story that somehow never saw the light of day and may bring down Condi Rice. And did I mention the election?
There’s a lot of desparation on the right. I guess that’s why Faux News is trying to misinform its viewers that Foley was a Democrat. They showed this image three times last night:
RELATED: A very funny (but sadly accurate) "dramatization" of one of the Foley IMs:
The GOP Implosion
Wiser folks have said this already, but it is worth reiterating, but the reason this is so damaging to the Republican party is that it resonates with people, pure and simple.
There are a lot of facts to this case we don’t know, and the Republicans and the spinmeisters are going to do their level best to muddy the waters with ambiguity and uncertainties. We really don’t know who “WHINTERNOW” is and why the website that leaked the emails exists or whether it was a hit job or a dirty trick.
But it doesn’t matter.
We really don’t know what exactly the House leadership knew and when they knew it, and I am sure that will all be sanitized and put in the best possible light over the next few weeks.
But it doesn’t matter.
We really don’t know if there was anything the House leadership could have done to stop him based on the vague emails- my guess is there was, but that will be spun away over the next few weeks.
But it doesn’t matter.
We really don’t know if Foley actually had sex with any underage teens.
But it doesn’t matter.
But what we do know, and what the American public now knows, is that the party that has spent the past few years demagoguing safety and security and law and order is now known as the party that has screwed up the Iraq war, that has codified torture, that has been filled to the rim with criminals and crooks fleecing the treasury (and who knows what else), and is now known as the party that at its most basic can’t be trusted, because they are the party that has middle age perverts trying to bugger your kids. And even better, the Republican House Leadership didn’t give enough of a shit to do anything about it because it might get messy or it might get in the way of their desires for power and actively hid the information from the oppostion party and the puBlic (or, as we might say, PEOPLE WHO MIGHT HAVE DONE THE RIGHT THING).
And that matters. People understand that. You can’t get around it, like you can the other issues. Iraq is complicated, and there can be some leeway for mistakes. National security is important, and you can talk away some of the distastrous decisions made by the GOP as simple disagreements. People are jaded and cynical, and when you point to Abramoff and Cunningham and other crooks, people are inclined to throw up their hands and say “All politicans are crooks.”
But when it comes to messing with people’s kids, it is a whole different ball game. It is hard for voters to get past the idea that their kid might be upstairs on his computer getting perved on by middle-aged Republicans while the leadership of the party (the party of values, mind you), informed of this man’s predilections, was just too busy to be bothered. Ask your neighbor what they think of the party that harbors a man who, in his spare time, spends hours IMing teenagers to measure their penis.
People understand that, and it should scare the shit out of the GOP.
It does. Here’s a major right wing blogger who says he has "decided to vote Democratic this fall." Here’s another.
Not a surprise. The GOP self-implosion is astounding to watch. For example, NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds used a couple dozen small children as props in a press conference in an apparent attempt to discourage reporters from asking him explicit questions about Foley. Can damage control get any more damaging?
And the "Condi Lies" thing is not just a slogan; it’s reality. Too much to keep up with, so if you’re not following the scandal follies, here’s the latest.
School Shootings And The Copycat Effect
This blogger is an expert on school shootings and the "copycat" effect. his name is Loren Coleman and he has dealt with the Copycat Effect through his federal government funded research work, books, and media consultations for almost three decades. He is the author, coauthor, or editor of over 25 books, one of which is the acclaimed Suicide Clusters (Faber and Faber, 1987).
Here’s what he’s saying in his latest post:
I want to share what I am seeing, what I project as forthcoming in the next month, October 2006. I’ve been saying most of this on radio interviews and in suicide trainings for weeks. No one seems to be listening, especially in the US media. Nevertheless, readers may wish to know about the patterns that are so obviously developing.
In talking about the copycat effect in media interviews, I’ve been noting a developing and coming wave of events for this autumn of 2006, due to the following facts…based on the trends and analyses I’ve written about in The Copycat Effect.
Here is what I am finding:
– most contemporary school shootings tend to occur primarily during two
periods of the school year – at the beginning (late Aug through October) and
near the the end of the academic year (March-April)…– copycats follow a regular temporal pattern that repeats – these could be
after a primary media event in a day, a week, two weeks, a month, a year, ten
years – vulnerable humans have internal media clocks…– copycats imitate the previous violent attacks, oftentimes down to specific
details as that mirror the previous specifics of the shooter, the victims, and the methods –– "celebrity" events have a far-reaching impact and modeling effect – so, of
course, Columbine serves as a dark cloud over many school shootings.One of the silliest things I have heard from cable news in the last several days during mid-September 2006, is that "these school shootings aren’t like the other school shootings." This is short-sighted, and factually untrue.
Before the current model (post-1996) in which a member of the student body would go into their own school and kill fellow students, the pattern was one of outsiders – often adults – going into schools and killing students. In my book, I discuss some of the more infamous cases (on pages 166-167, and in a long list in my appendix, following page 263).
Every year is different, and a fresh view must be considered based upon observations that are right in front of our eyes. What I do at the beginning of a new school year is to see if there is an emerging pattern that will be the re-worked "copycat" model for the new school year. To me, it was and is obvious where we were going this year.
***
Expect more school shootings, unfortunately. Be alert, be prepared, be careful.
What You Missed
In the local community theater scene, there are several companies from which you can expect a quality production: Little Theater of Winston-Salem, Winston Salem Theatre Alliance, Community Theatre of Greensboro, etc.
Then there are other smaller companies (from smaller communities and/or church groups) which lack the budget and personnel and so-on who mount reasonable shows, but it is sometimes a hit-or-miss proposition. Sometimes the show they’ve selected is overly ambitious, given the space or caliber of the cast.
But once in a while, the right mix of cast and production come together and one of the smaller community theaters presents an evening which can rival the best in the area.
"Grace & Glorie", presented by the Kernersville Little Theatre, was such a production.
I caught the show in its closing weekend.
The Winston-Salem Journal described the play as follows:
Grace and Glorie is the story of Grace, a 90-year old woman who is dying of cancer and Gloria, her hospice worker who has moved to the Blue Ridge mountains of Virginia from New York City.
Gloria volunteers at a hospital to help terminally ill people, and Grace is her third assignment.
Well, yes. That’s the general plot. But there’s more to it.
Grace is an illiterate religious hardy woman set in her ways. She has lived her quiet life, never travelling for more than 50 miles from her home, and never seriously contemplating her life’s value or her legacy.
Glorie is a contemporary secular "power" woman who left the fast lane (with her husband) following the death of her boy in an automobile accident (Grace was driving at the time).
In their own ways, both characters are coping with death — Grace with her own impending demise, and Glorie with her son’s tragic end. But other than that, they share almost nothing in common.
And while Glorie is looking for answers surrounding the meaning of life (and death), Grace never even thought about the questions.
The culture clash between the two women provides for most, if not all, of the humor between the two women. Glorie introduces Grace to hair mousse, lobster salad and video cameras; Grace introduces Glorie to pot-bellied stoves and Velveeta cheese sandwiches.
But somehow, the two stubborn characters manage to connect, find some common ground, and learn from each other. To the credit of playright Tom Ziegler, this is acheived without weepy sentimentality (although the show is a tearjerker).
Still, a "talky" play runs the risk of becoming boring and preachy. This is where the cast of "Grace & Glorie" really shined. Cheryl Ann Roberts (Grace) and Pat Shumate (Glorie) worked exceedingly well together, and whether they were sparring with each other or comforting each other, you really believed every moment and every word. It’s rare (and nice) to see such rich and developed charactors, and even more difficult to portray them for over two hours. But both actresses rose to the occasion, each sending the audience into emotional rollercoasters of hilarity and sadness.
The KLT production was in the Kernersville Follys, a perfect venue for such an intimate show (the Follys seats only about 60 people).
I would tell you to go see it, but the production is closed. Your loss.
Whaddup With Winnie Cooper?
Man, I was so in love with Winnie Cooper from The Wonder Years.
Such innocence.
Smart, too. Danica McKellar (who played Winnie Cooper) graduated summa from UCLA, and authored this paper somewhere in her education: "Percolation and Gibbs states multiplicity for ferromagnetic Askin-Teller models on Z2" (PDF format)
Don’t bother reading it — you won’t understand it either.
Saw her on the fourth (fifth?) season of The West Wing, all grown up but still cute as a button.
I wonder what she’s up to now?
Oh.
My.
Um.
Okay.
You go, girl.
Tell Me Why
And nobody’s going to go to school today….
Yeah, I don’t like Mondays either, but….
Did Neil Armstrong Screw Up?
"That’s one small step for man; one giant leap for mankind."
When you think about it, those famous words — perhaps the most famous words spoken in the last century — don’t make sense.
Clearly, Armstrong was trying to juxtapose an individual "man" with the greater "mankind". But he left out the "a" before "man", so essentially, he said:
"That’s one small step for mankind; one giant leap for mankind."
When this was pointed out to him upon his return to Earth, Armstrong wasn’t sure if he flubbed the first words spoken on the moon, or whether there might have been a brief "dropout" in communications which made it seem like the "a" was missing.
In his official biography, First Man, Armstrong admitted:
“It doesn’t sound like there was time for the word to be there. On the other hand, I didn’t intentionally make an inane statement . . . certainly the ‘a’ was intended, because that’s the only way the statement makes any sense.”
37 years later, the debate has been resolved.
Armstrong said:
"That’s one small step for a man; one giant leap for mankind."
State Of Denial
"In the midst of all the excitement over the GOP congress’s under-age cyberstalking, I hope that we don’t lose sight of the other white meat — Woodward’s astonishing revelations in his new book ‘State of Denial.’"
Slate’s John Dickerson says:
The book paints the administration as clueless, dishonest, and dysfunctional. The behind-the-scenes anecdotes are irresistible. Laura Bush telling her husband he should fire Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Vice President Cheney pushing aides to call the chief weapons inspector in the middle of the night with coordinates for a site in Syria that might have those elusive weapons. Secret White House visits by Henry Kissinger. Bush having to tell Rumsfeld to return Condoleezza Rice’s calls. Memos describing Rumsfeld’s "rubber glove syndrome" — he didn’t want to leave fingerprints on decisions.
State of Denial is a significant blow to the president both politically and strategically. Politically it comes after the 9/11 anniversary restored some of Bush’s popularity and improved voters’ feelings about his administration’s competency…. As a policy matter, the book undermines Bush’s attempts to strengthen the national will for the long and drawn-out fight ahead…. [Woodward] charges the president has not been straight with the American people about how bad things are in Iraq and how much worse it’s going to get.
The thing about Woodward’s book is that — like his prior books favorable to the Bush Administration — it is an account based on factually accounts from inside the White House. Woodward isn’t merely espousing his opinion; he’s reporting facts which shed light on the most secretive of all presidencies.
Cool Stuff
This is cool:
A color-coded called ID system. Assign a color to a person’s (or group’s) phone number so you know (just by looking at the color) who is calling.
This is just stupid:
A DVD rewinder (works for CDs, too!)
Dems Soft On Child Predators?
The New York Times notes how the NRCC has run ads this cycle hitting Democratic challengers on being soft on child predators.
All I can say is "Huh"?:
House Speaker Dennis Hastert has asked the Justice Department to investigate how lawmakers handled allegations that Rep. Mark Foley exchanged sexually explicit messages with teenage congressional pages. The move comes after Democrats questioned whether the House’s GOP leadership had squelched concerns about Foley, a Republican who now has resigned.
That’s the political fallout of the Foleygate story — not that a Republican senator liked to sexually solicit underage (male) congressional pages, but that the GOP leadership knew of it for months, possibly years, and covered it up.
RELATED: As is often the case, the Foley story "broke" at a blog.
UPDATE – via Think Progress:
Rep. Dennis Hastert’s former webpage before he changed it this morning:
Hastert’s webpage now:
Heh.
Friday iPod Random Ten
Here Comes The Sun – The Beatles- In Your Eyes – Peter Gabriel
- The Want Of A Nail – Soundtrack from the film "Camp"
- Not While I’m Around – "Sweeney Todd" (Original Broadway Cast)
- Lady Maramalade – Labelle
- Breakfast In America -Supertramp
- Undertow -Suzanne Vega
- Tuesday Afternoon -The Moody Blues
- Sunny – Bobby Herb
Well, Well, Well
Looks like convicted briber/lobbyist Jack Abramoff did spend a lot of time nuzzling with Karl Rove after all.
