Why did almost everybody fail to predict Donald Trump’s victory in the Republican primaries? Nate Silver blames the news media, disorganized Republican elites, and the surprising appeal of cultural grievance. Nate Cohn lists a number of factors, from the unusually large candidate field to the friendly calendar. Jim Rutenberg thinks journalism strayed too far from good old-fashioned shoe-leather reporting. Justin Wolfers zeroes in on Condorcet’s paradox. Here’s the factor I think everybody missed: The Republican Party turns out to be filled with idiots. Far more of them than anybody expected.
UPDATE:
Atrios responds:
I’m tired of reading think pieces about WHY WE ALL THOUGHT DONALD TRUMP WOULD LOSE (I’m looking at you, Chait). First of all, we all didn’t, you and your circle jerk did. Secondly, I don’t care what your prior beliefs about the Republican party were. If you were an alien anthropologist sent to study this election but otherwise didn’t know a damn thing about about the American electorate, you would have looked at the polls and predicted a Trump win. Thirdly, to the extent that your knowledge of Republican voters might have added a bit of special sauce to your poll analysis, we hippie liberals have been telling you for years that a sizeable chunk of Republican voters are absolute blithering idiots. Also, racist. This is not news.