From this blog on July 2, 2015, I wrote:

Trump will not be a candidate for President.  Like Michele Bachmann in 2012, he’s enjoying a very early leap in the polls.  Also, like in 2012, I suspect many of the candidates will enjoy a brief moment in the sun before the drop out.  This is Trump’s.  But if it were up to Democrats, his moment in the GOP would last forever and ever.  He’s a gift that keeps on giving.

Just wanted to fess up to my prognostication skills, or lack thereof.

And less than two weeks later:

Of course, many were wrong.