From Safire’s annual column. The rules: for each item, choose one, all or none.:
1. The business headline of the year will be:
(a) Big Bounce to 15,000 Dow After Soft Landing
(b) Recession Has Brokers Selling Apples for Five Euros on Wall Street
(c) Subprime Mess Was Greatly Exaggerated
(d) China Buys Boeing
My guess: (a)
2. The Academy Award for Best Picture will go to:
(a) “There Will Be Blood”
(b) “Sweeney Todd”
(c) “American Gangster”
(d) “The Kite Runner”
(e) “Charlie Wilson’s War”
My guess: (a)
3. The Roberts Supreme Court will decide that:
(a) gun rights belong to the individual, but the Second Amendment’s key limitation is that gun possession should be “well-regulated”
(b) states can require voter ID to prevent fraud even if it reduces access
(c) lethal injection is not cruel or unusual punishment if it isn’t painful
(d) the “ancient right” of habeas corpus applies to Guantánamo detainees no matter what law Congress passes
My guess: All
4. The fiction sleeper best seller will be:
(a) “Missy,” a first novel by the British playwright Chris Hanna
(b) “Shadow and Light,” by Jonathan Rabb, set in prewar Germany
My guess: None
5. The nonfiction success will be:
(a) “American-Made: The Enduring Legacy of the W.P.A.,” by Nick Taylor
(b) “What Do We Do Now?” interregnum advice by Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution
(c) “Counselor: A Life at the Edge of History” by Ted Sorensen, President Kennedy’s alter ego
(d) “Basic Brown,” a memoir by Willie Brown, former mayor of San Francisco
(e) “Human,” by the neuroscientist Michael Gazzaniga
(f) “Come to Think of It,” by Daniel Schorr
My guess: (f)
6. The media world will be rocked as:
(a) fizzling ratings for a China-dominated ’08 Olympics induce G.E. to sell NBC Universal to cable-departing Time Warner
(b) “pod push-back” by music customers threatens Apple’s dominance of digital music space
(c) Google challenges telecommunications giants by taking steps to provide both telephone and video on the Internet
My guess: (c, although that might happen in 2009)
7. In United States foreign policy debates:
(a) success in Iraq will embarrass cut-and-run Democrats
(b) failure in Iraq will sink stay-the-course Republicans
(c) Iraq muddling along won’t affect the American election
My guess: None (Iraq muddling — which is neither success nor faillure — will affect the election, to the benefit of the Democrats)
8. The de facto dictator truly leaving the political scene this year will be:
(a) Hugo Chávez
(b) Vladimir V. Putin (afflicted by the Time cover jinx)
(c) Robert Mugabe
(d) Fidel Castro
My guess: (d)
9. By year’s end, American diplomats will be negotiating openly with:
(a) Hamas
(b) the Taliban
(c) Iran
My guess: None
10. The two-state solution to the Arab-Israeli dispute appears when:
(a) a free election or civil strife in the West Bank and Gaza brings a unified, neighborly government to the Palestinians
(b) an Ehud Barak-Benjamin Netanyahu rematch results in a majoritarian, rightist coalition victory
(c) the Jerusalem division issue is resolved by expanding the official city limits to embrace two capitals
My guess: None
11. Assuming the Iowa caucuses to be meaningless pollster-media hype, the January primary state with the biggest influence on the outcome of both parties’ nominations will be:
(a) New Hampshire
(b) Michigan
(c) South Carolina
(d) Florida
My guess: (d)
12. The American troop level in Iraq at year’s end will be:
(a) the present 152,000
(b) the pre-surge 130,000
(c) 100,000 and dropping steadily
My guess: (c)
13. The issue most affecting the vote on Election Day will be:
(a) immigration: absorb ’em or deport ’em
(b) taxation: soak the rich or lift all boats
(c) health plans: incentivize or socialize
(d) diplomacy: accommodating realism or extending freedom
My guess: (b)
14. The presidential election will hinge primarily on:
(a) a debate blooper
(b) success or failure in Iraq
(c) Hispanic backlash
(d) a personal scandal
(e) a terror attack on the United States
(f) racism/sexism
(g) the economy, stupid
My guess: (a)
15. The Democratic ticket will be:
(a) Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama
(b) Obama-Clinton
(c) Clinton-Bill Richardson
(d) Obama-Joseph Biden
(e) John Edwards-Dianne Feinstein
My guess: (c)
16. The Republican ticket will be:
(a) Rudolph Giuliani-Mike Huckabee
(b) Mitt Romney-Gen. David Petraeus
(c) John McCain-Michael Bloomberg
My guess: (b)
17. The winning theme in November will be:
(a) time for a change
(b) don’t let them take it away
(c) experience counts
(d) nobody’s perfect
My guess: (a)
18. The election will be decided on:
(a) charisma
(b) experience
(c) character
(d) sex
(e) money
(f) issues
My guess: (c)
19. As 2009 dawns, Americans will face:
(a) a leftward march, with the Clintons in the White House and a Democratic Congress feeling no tax, entitlement or earmark restraint
(b) creative gridlock, as President McCain finds common ground with a centrist Democratic Congress
(c) a stunning G.O.P. conservative resurgence, with the equally long-shot Washington Redskins girding for the 2009 Super Bowl
My guess: (a) more than anything else.
If I remember, I’ll check back on this in one year…..