Yes, it’s waaaay too early. Yes, much can change. But the latest polls show that Bush has the uphill battle, as opposed to Kerry — 57 percent want a change from Bush. The money paragraph from MSNBC:

Kerry’s advantage on many key issues was large. The Democrat currently has double-digit advantages over the president as the person best able to handle the economy (Kerry leads Bush by 12 percentage points), Social Security (16 points), education (12 points), the budget deficit (15 points) and health care (20 points). On only one major issue is Bush preferred to Kerry: the war on terrorism, where the president has a 21-point advantage.

Well that explains why Bush (and his supporters) don’t want to talk about anything but the war on terrorism.

Update: And how did I miss this, from Gallup?!? — holy crap!!:

. . . Bush is barely ahead in the states he won four years ago by more than five percentage points (which Gallup calls "red" states). He leads Kerry by just 50% to 47%. In the "blue" states, which former Vice President Al Gore won by margins of more than five percentage points, Kerry leads Bush by a substantial margin, 55% to 42%. In "purple" states — where the margin of victory for either candidate in 2000 was five percentage points or less — Kerry also leads by a substantial margin, 55% to 39%.

Heh.