Dem Debate Fallout

Ken AshfordDemocrats, Election 2020, PollsLeave a Comment

We are several days (including a weekend) following the Democratic debates, and the field is taking shape as expected. Warren and Harris are up; Bide is down. Here are some graphs: Post-debate CNN poll: 2020 Democrats 6/28-30 (change from 5/28-31) Biden 22% (-10)Harris 17% (+9)Warren 15% (+8)Sanders 14% (-4)Buttigieg 4% (-1)Booker 3% (-)O’Rourke 3% (-2)Klobuchar 2% (-)Castro 1% (-1)de Blasio … Read More

SCOTUS WrapUp: Trump Denied Citizenship Question In 2020 Census; On The Other Hand, Democracy Is Screwed

Ken AshfordElection 2020, Immigration and Xenophobia, Local Interest, Polls, Supreme Court, Trump & Administration, Voter SuppressionLeave a Comment

The last day of the term meant the handing down of two critical and important opinions. The first, Department of Commerce v New York, was a blow to the Trump administration. The issue involves the inclusion of a question non the census about citizenship. It was challenged on the grounds that it was arbitrary and capricious — in essence, that … Read More

Trump Kills The Messengers

Ken AshfordElection 2020, Polls, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

A peak inside Trumpland shows that if you speak truth to him, he goes on off on you. This is how he is in private: President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is cutting ties with some of its own pollsters after leaked internal polling showed the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in critical 2020 battleground states, according to a … Read More

2020 Election Polls Continue To Bash Trump

Ken AshfordElection 2020, PollsLeave a Comment

Note that all six of the candidates mentioned here bet out Trump OVER the margin of error. That’s not all. After a devastating 17-state poll conducted by his campaign, Trump was also behind in key states to Biden. What did Trump do? He told aides to deny that his internal polling showed him trailing Mr. Biden even though he is … Read More

Public Slowly Warms To Impeachment… But Is There A Tipping Point?

Ken AshfordL'Affaire Russe, PollsLeave a Comment

CNN poll Democrats are increasingly in support of impeaching President Donald Trumpand removing him from office but the majority of Americans remain opposed to the prospect, a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS shows. Trump’s approval rating, meanwhile, holds exactly even with where it was in late April — 43% approve and 52% disapprove of the President, according to the poll. That’s the case even … Read More

Smoking Gun: Hard Drive Of Deceased GOP Consultant Shows Census Question Had Partisan Motive

Ken AshfordElection 2020, Polls, Race, RepublicansLeave a Comment

The move by the Trump administration to add a citizenship question to the census can be traced back directly to the work of a Republican redistricting expert who studied how to create maps that “would be advantageous to Republicans and Non-Hispanic Whites,” according to new evidence revealed in court documents filed Thursday. How the evidence even fell into the challengers’ … Read More

Monmouth NH Poll Has Biden On Top

Ken AshfordElection 2020, PollsLeave a Comment

Look. It’s waaaay to early for these things, but with 20+ Democrats in the mix, it’s an early bellweather of who has New Hampshire’s attention and who doesn’t. New Monmouth NH poll: – Joe Biden 36% Bernie Sanders 18% Pete Buttigieg 9% Elizabeth Warren 8% Kamala Harris 6% Cory Booker 2% Amy Klobuchar 2% Beto O’Rourke 2% John Hickenlooper 1% … Read More

Call For Impeachment Grows

Ken AshfordL'Affaire Russe, Polls, Right Wing and Inept Media, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

There are a lot of serious writings lately urging the impeachment of Trump, and not just from the fringes of the internet. Here is one typical example, printed in the Washington Post, by Brian Klaas: If Donald Trump weren’t president, he’d probably be in jail. That’s the view of a bipartisan group of hundreds of former federal prosecutors, who have … Read More

NPR/Marist Poll Shows People Want To See Mueller Report

Ken AshfordL'Affaire Russe, Polls, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Some graphs from today’s NPR/Marist Poll: I think there is a problem with the question. Does this mean they are satisfied with Mueller’s thoroughness, or satisfied with the outcome? Huge difference, and I think that makes the results meaningless. Democrats, Republicans and Independents all want to see the full report. Curious that 40% of Republicans don’t want to see the … Read More

Quinnipiac Poll Shows Most People Don’t Believe Trump And That He Committed Crimes Before Becoming President

Ken AshfordL'Affaire Russe, Political Scandals, Polls, Stormy Daniels & Karen McDougal Affairs, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

President Donald Trump committed crimes before he became president, American voters say 64 – 24 percent in a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today. Republicans say 48 – 33 percent that President Trump did not commit crimes before he was president, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. Every other listed party, gender, education, age and racial group says … Read More

Dealmaker, My Ass

Ken AshfordPolls, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

To all the people out there who voted for Trump because he is a great dealmaker, let’s review how well he did on his first big dealmaking with a non-compliant Congress: March 2018: Democrats offer $25B in border all funding for a pathway to citizenship for the dreamers. Trump kills the deal by tacking on draconian cuts to LEGAL immigration. … Read More

Trump Is The Underdog For 2020

Ken AshfordElection 2020, PollsLeave a Comment

He seems stuck at 41-42%, no matter who he runs against. Our new national poll finds no matter what Dem you test against Trump, he is stuck at 41-42% Biden 53 Trump 41Sanders 51 Trump 41Harris 48 Trump 41O'Rourke 47 Trump 41Warren 48 Trump 42Booker 47 Trump 42Gillibrand 47 Trump 42:https://t.co/3qotAuZKDj — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 22, 2019

The Sound Of Goalposts Moving Again

Ken AshfordL'Affaire Russe, Polls, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Rudy Giuliani on Cuomo last night: Rudy Guiliani to @ChrisCuomo tonight: “I never said there was no collusion between the campaign or between people in the campaign… I have not. I said” no collision with, “the President of the United States.” pic.twitter.com/Smb0OuNzL9 — andrew kaczynski (@KFILE) January 17, 2019 According to Giuliani, what Trump meant in the sixty tweets in which he’s … Read More

Country REALLY Divided on Day 26 of Shutdown

Ken AshfordGubmint Shutdown, Immigration and Xenophobia, Polls, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

From Gallup today, the country is more divided on Trump than with any other president in polling history. The average 79-percentage-point difference between Republicans’ and Democrats’ job approval ratings of President Donald Trump during his second year in office is the largest Gallup has measured in any presidential year to date.  But Trump still polls at historical lows. Overall, an … Read More