A Very Well-Made Political Ad

Ken AshfordElection 2018Leave a Comment

Hegar has an uphill battle in a district that is rated R+10. It stretches from the northernmost suburbs of Austin to Fort Hood and it will be interesting to watch how an ad like the one below plays out in an area that is dominated by active-duty military. Hegar has obviously adopted the idea of “doors” as a theme for … Read More

How To Message The Trump-Russia Scandal

Ken AshfordElection 2018, L'Affaire Russe, Trump & Administration, Women's IssuesLeave a Comment

Having written about The Navigator last month, I am glad to see that the second issue deals with how to talk about the Mueller scandal. Some quick takeaways: A majority of Americans — 59 percent — say that Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia and the 2016 campaign has not yet uncovered evidence of any crimes, even though in reality, Mueller … Read More

Reuters Poll: The Blue Wave May Not Come

Ken AshfordElection 2018Leave a Comment

In the generic Republican vs Democratic ballot, the much-touted Dem lead has evaporated, according to the most recent Reuters poll. This is due, I suspect, to Mueller fatigue, and a somewhat successful (if not complete disingenuous and lie-based) media onslaught by Trump and Company. The Reuters poll reflects a larger trend of Republicans closing the gap in the generic ballot. A CNN … Read More

Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents

Ken AshfordElection 2018Leave a Comment

The Cook Political Report: Multiple indicators, including generic ballot polls , President Trump’s approval ratings and recent special election results, point to midterm danger for Republicans. But without robust race-by-race polling, it’s trickier to predict individual races six months out. Are Democrats the favorites to pick up the 23 seats they need for a majority? Yes, but it’s still not certain which races will materialize for … Read More

Ken AshfordCrime, Cybersecurity, Election 2018, Science & Technology, Wiretapping & SurveillanceLeave a Comment

This is torn from the blog of John Bambenek, a security analyst and Republican candidate for Illinois State Senate, about his conversations with Guccifer 2.0 (G2).  The post is entitled MY CONVERSATIONS WITH GUCCIFER 2.0 & THE SURPRISING ELECTION INFLUENCE OPERATIONS. As attention turns to threats facing 2018’s midterm elections, we’re learning hard lessons from what went down in 2016. (Plus, … Read More

WSJ Reporting Indicates Trump Campaign Violation

Ken AshfordCampaign Finance Reform, Election 2018, Stormy Daniels Affair, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Remember how Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid $130,000 of his own money to adult film actress Stormy Daniels in the final weeks of the campaign so her past affair with Trump wouldn’t come out? And how there was question about exactly how often Cohen had paid people off for Trump using his own money, whether this was a campaign contribution, and … Read More

Sarah Sanders Press Conference – 2/20/2018

Ken AshfordBreaking News, Cybersecurity, Election 2018, Gun Control, L'Affaire Russe, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Her first press conference since the shooting — Sarah Sanders is reading her statement about the Parkland massacre like it’s a book report she really doesn’t want to deliver. — Matt Novak (@paleofuture) February 20, 2018 “It’s very clear that Russia meddled in the election. It’s also very clear it didn’t have an impact in the election,” Sarah Sanders says … Read More

Running For The Hills?

Ken AshfordElection 2018, Election 2020, RepublicansLeave a Comment

It’s a stampede for the exits. The Hill reports: Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), chairman of the House Oversight Committee, announced Wednesday that he will not run for reelection. “There is a time to come and a time to go. This is the right time, for me, to leave politics and return to the justice system,” he said in a statement on Twitter. … Read More

Jones Beats Moore In Close Result

Ken AshfordCongress, Democrats, Election 2016, Election 2018, Republicans, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Moore has not conceded, but the margin of victory is high enough to ensure no automatic recount. African-American turnout played an important role in Jones’ victory. Race played a bigger factor than education as white men AND WOMEN(!) preferred Moore. Of the 20 counties that saw their turnout rise in comparison to the 2014 midterm elections in Alabama, an election … Read More

Trump Finally Weighs In On Moore

Ken AshfordElection 2018, Political Scandals, Republicans, Sex Scandals, Sex/Morality/Family Values, Trump & Administration, Women's IssuesLeave a Comment

As for the open Alabama seat, Trump has remained unusually quiet, ignoring questions from reporters. But today, he couldn’t help himself. BREAKING: Trump discounts allegations against Republican Roy Moore and says, ‘We don’t need a liberal person in there.’ — AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 21, 2017 This is worth noting because WH spokesperson Sarah Sanders had said on several occasions … Read More

The Moore Accuser Count Is Up To 8

Ken AshfordElection 2016, Election 2018, Political Scandals, Republicans, Sex Scandals, Sex/Morality/Family Values, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Via WaPo: Roy Moore. Born in 1947. He moved out of Gadsden, Ala., in 1954, returning after his service in Vietnam in 1977. He joined the office of the district attorney that year. In 1982, he again left Gadsden, returning in 1985, the year he married his wife, Kayla. She was 24, and he was 38. In 1992, he was … Read More

More More Moore (How Do You Like It?)

Ken AshfordCongress, Election 2018, Political Scandals, Sex Scandals, Sex/Morality/Family ValuesLeave a Comment

Roy Moore is now adopting the “best defense is a good offense” strategy. He is setting up to hit the Washington Post with a lawsuit over the allegations that he had sexual contact with a 14-year-old girl while Moore was in his 30’s. According to AP, Moore told his supporters in Huntsville, Alabama on Sunday that the WaPo story was “fake news” and … Read More