Epistemic Closure Can Kill A Party

Ken AshfordEducation, Election 2018, Fake News, Right Wing Punditry/IdiocyLeave a Comment

An internal poll conducted by the Republican National Committee revealed that “57 percent of people who describe themselves as strong Trump supporters don’t believe Democrats have a chance” of winning back the House. That has Republican operatives worried because it signals complacency, which is a problem for the upcoming midterm elections where turnout is key. It’s not hard to imagine … Read More

Oh, Look. Obama!

Ken AshfordElection 2018, Obama & AdministrationLeave a Comment

In rare public speech ending moments ago, Obama said Trump poses such a threat to America that it forced him to speak out. “I’m here today because this is one of those pivotal moments when every one of us as citizens of the United States need to determine just who we are, what it is that we stand for,” Obama … Read More

Trump Is Upset The DOJ Isn’t Partisan

Ken AshfordElection 2018, General corruption, Republicans, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

This tweet from Trump reveals much: Obama-era investigations?  Not so much.  Details: Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-California, and Rep. Chris Collins, R-New York, were indicted within two weeks of each other last month on unrelated charges.Collins was charged with 13 counts of securities fraud, wire fraud and making false statements related to an alleged insider trading scheme.Hunter was indicted for using … Read More

Will The Shoe Drop Today?

Ken AshfordElection 2018, L'Affaire Russe, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Mediate: MSNBC’s Chuck Todd issued a warning to the press on Thursday evening regarding the Russia investigation: Don’t miss work tomorrow.Todd’s MTP Daily panel was discussing Special Counsel Robert Mueller‘s probe, and speculating as to when the investigation will wrap up.“Here’s what I’ve learned about Bob Mueller,” Todd said. “Not a single person that has known him, been with him, worked with him, wouldn’t say … Read More

Once Again, The GOP-Led NC Legislature Gets Foiled By The Courts In Their Attempt To Gerrymander

Ken AshfordBreaking News, Constitution, Election 2018, Local Interest, RepublicansLeave a Comment

Yesterday, a federal district court once again struck down North Carolina’s Republican-drawn congressional map as a partisan gerrymander in violation of the Constitution. This ruling reaffirmed the court’s January decision, which the Supreme Court vacated and told them to reconsider in June under a different legal theory of who has standing to sue. Indeed, while the Supreme Court said each district would have to be challenged individually … Read More

From Here To November: Buckle Up

Ken AshfordElection 2018, L'Affaire Russe, Supreme Court, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Paul Waldman wrote yesterday that the next eleven weeks are going to be decisive for the Trump presidency. He notes first that Michael Cohen appears to either be on the cusp of indictment or cooperation and that could spell all kinds of new headaches for Trump both politically and legally. He’s already been proved right about that…. BREAKING: @MichaelCohen212 has reached a … Read More

Thoughts On Last Night’s Special Elections

Ken AshfordElection 2018Leave a Comment

Last night parts of America went to vote on various candidates for primaries and special elections.  The most-watched and silliest race was the 12th District of Ohio. It was most-watched because it is regarded as a bellwether of the upcoming November elections (more on that later). It was the silliest because it was a special election to fill a vacant … Read More

Breaking: Trump Bigwigs Make Show Of Combating Russian Election Meddling (But The Press Is The Enemy Of The People)

Ken AshfordCybersecurity, Election 2018, L'Affaire Russe, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

About time too. After 18 months of getting kicked in the balls, the WH rolls out its national security team to discuss what they are doing to defend elections and protect against attacks by hostile actors (including information operations that target American public) About time, guys. — Molly McKew (@MollyMcKew) August 2, 2018 Yup. DNI Dan Coats, at WH briefing, … Read More

Facebook: We Found Campaign Influence Operations For Upcoming Elections

Ken AshfordCybersecurity, Election 2018, L'Affaire RusseLeave a Comment

Facebook has detected an ongoing influence operation targeting Americans with content related to the politically contentious issues of immigration enforcement and white supremacism, according to a report from the New York Times:  Like the Russian interference campaign in 2016, the recently detected campaign dealt with divisive social issues. Facebook discovered coordinated activity around issues like a sequel to last year’s deadly “Unite … Read More

A Very Well-Made Political Ad

Ken AshfordElection 2018Leave a Comment

Hegar has an uphill battle in a district that is rated R+10. It stretches from the northernmost suburbs of Austin to Fort Hood and it will be interesting to watch how an ad like the one below plays out in an area that is dominated by active-duty military. Hegar has obviously adopted the idea of “doors” as a theme for … Read More

How To Message The Trump-Russia Scandal

Ken AshfordElection 2018, L'Affaire Russe, Trump & Administration, Women's IssuesLeave a Comment

Having written about The Navigator last month, I am glad to see that the second issue deals with how to talk about the Mueller scandal. Some quick takeaways: A majority of Americans — 59 percent — say that Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia and the 2016 campaign has not yet uncovered evidence of any crimes, even though in reality, Mueller … Read More

Reuters Poll: The Blue Wave May Not Come

Ken AshfordElection 2018Leave a Comment

In the generic Republican vs Democratic ballot, the much-touted Dem lead has evaporated, according to the most recent Reuters poll. This is due, I suspect, to Mueller fatigue, and a somewhat successful (if not complete disingenuous and lie-based) media onslaught by Trump and Company. The Reuters poll reflects a larger trend of Republicans closing the gap in the generic ballot. A CNN … Read More

Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents

Ken AshfordElection 2018Leave a Comment

The Cook Political Report: Multiple indicators, including generic ballot polls , President Trump’s approval ratings and recent special election results, point to midterm danger for Republicans. But without robust race-by-race polling, it’s trickier to predict individual races six months out. Are Democrats the favorites to pick up the 23 seats they need for a majority? Yes, but it’s still not certain which races will materialize for … Read More