Yesterday saw the first special Congressional election since the November general election.
The district was Kansas 4th. It is a very strongly Republican district, “ruby red” as they say. It last elected a Democrat in 1992 — and that Democrat an exception to its historical pattern.
In November, Mike Pompeo (now CIA Director) won with 60% of the vote, as did Donald Trump. Trump’s victory was by a 27 point margin.
The Democrats’ House Campaign Committee made minimal effort this time. (One last minute burst of get-out-the-vote calls.) But mostly, the Democratic candidate was on his own — with whatever external funding he could raise on his own.
He should have gotten killed.
Before the vote, on of the DC political pundits (David Beard, Washington Post) gave this analysis:
KS-04 results:
>30: Good for Rs
20-30: Normal given Ds out party
10-20: Good for Ds,Trump a factor
0-10: Bodes well for 2018
Win: !!!!
And the actual results? Republican win . . . with a 7% margin (52-46).
Very good news. All eyes are on the Georgia 6th District election next week. In November, Tim Price (now HHS Director) won with 61.7% of the vote. But Trump’s victory over Clinton was by a mere one percentage point. (In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney beat Democratic President Barack Obama in the district by 23 points.)
Could the Trump effect translate to a Dem win? The Democratic candidate is Jon Ossoff, a 30-year-old political newcomer (former Congressional aide and film documentarian). He has raised tons of money. The GOP slot seems to include competing candidates, who are likely to split the vote. The winner must receive at least 50% of the vote. Otherwise, a runoff is held between the top two candidates, regardless of party.