As I write this, we don’t know much about what happened to MS804, which disappeared off radar last night (our time).  The wreckage has not even been found yet.

But if I may be allowed to speculate (and it’s my blog, so why not), I think we can conclude that the loss was due to an explosive device.

Why do I say this?  Process of elimination.

We know that MS804 was flying in clear weather.  So that possibility is out.

We know that it was flying at a steady altitude of 37,000 feet, and did not change direction or altitude in the minutes before it “disappeared” from the radar.  This would suggest that whatever happened, it happened quickly.  If, say, a cargo door had blown off and the cabin depressurized, the aircraft would have stayed aloft for many minutes, as the pilots struggled to keep control.  That didn’t happen.  Nor was any radio or distress signal sent.  From all this, we can rule out some sort of mechanical error with the craft or its maintenance.  It is highly unlikely that a mechanical error would result in a sudden disappearance (and plummet) of an aircraft.

That leaves explosion.

There are a couple ways an aircraft could explode.  It could have been hit by another aircraft.  But this would have been known by now (if another aircraft was downed or missing).  It could have been hit by a missile (ground-to-air), as in an act of terrorism.  This is unlikely because the airplane was so high (37,000 feet) and 100 nautical miles out to sea.  It could have been an explosion due to some dangerous explosive cargo, but we know it was carrying none.

What we are left with then…. is an explosive device.

If true…. that is disturbing, since it clearly indicates a breakdown in security, either at the Paris airport (deGaulle) or one of the previous airports.