It’s the day of the New York primary, y’all!!

And while the media has been trying its darnedest to make this an interesting primary day, the results are obvious to anyone paying attention:  Trump wins, Clinton wins.

Twas ever thus.  Seriously.  They were ahead when all eyes turned to NY, and they’re still ahead now.

But now you can enjoy a post-New York spate of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump comeback stories.

I’ll save you the trouble.  Here are the headlines of these stories?

“Does Bernie Have A Realistic Path To Victory?”  [Answer: No]

“Should Bernie Drop Out?”  [Answer: No]

“Does Trump’s NY Victory Stave Off A Contested GOP Convention?”  [Answer: Not completely, but it helps]

As to this last point, Sam Wang at Princeton University thinks a Trump win in New York of 54% gives him 86 out of the 95 NY delegates.  And so the probability of getting to 1237 or more delegates is at 64 percent.  Here’s his work, and here’s the key chart with assumptions:

But then Wang adds this caveat:

Alternate scenarios: Trump’s Meta-Margin is +1.5%; if he falls by that much, then the probability of clearing 1237 pledged delegates falls to 50%. This calculation excludes uncommitted delegates and assumes all assigned delegates remain faithful to their voters. Under uncertain conditions (I regard 20-80% probability as uncertain territory, and 64% is right in there), within a limited range, each additional (or removed) delegate alters the probability by approximately 0.5%.

For example, this survey of Pennsylvania delegates suggests that 20% of district-level delegates would be likely to defect – usually because they are Cruz supporters. That would cost Trump an average of 11 delegates (assuming he sweeps all districts). If 11 Pennsylvania delegates are faithless, then the probability of getting to 1237 or greater drops from 64% to 59%. At this rate of defection, the calculation gives a median of 1255 delegates, interquartile range 1199-1294. However, I note that we do not know if Trump voters will willingly vote for Cruz-committed delegates.

Conversely, if 20 uncommitted delegates are recruited, then the probability goes up to 74%. I leave it to you, dear reader, to decide how much to add or subtract.

Yeah, I don’t know what that means either.

BUT, the point of this post is to say that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will win their home state of New York.  Clinton supporters will breathe (another) sigh of relief as Sanders’ ultimate doom looms closer.  And the Sanders campaign, and his supporters, will get more petulant and desperate, adding to the unnecessary tribalism that will hurt Democrats in the general.