The Best Thing To Happen To Hillary

Ken AshfordElection 2016Leave a Comment

It’s too early to pull the plug on Bernie Sanders.  He trails in the delegate count, and he has to keep on pulling upsets like he did in Michigan to prevail as the nominee.

And it is quite possible that he might pull some of those upsets tomorrow — in Missouri, Illinois, and even Ohio.

But he has to do that, and keep on doing that to win.

Let’s assume he doesn’t and Hillary is the Democratic nominee.

What happens to the millennials — the ones under 35 who are the driving force behind Bernie’s success? Do they switch to Hillary?  Do they switch to Trump (don’t laugh — I have personal anecdotal evidence that this is a distinct possibility)?  Do they stay at home and not vote at all?

A new USA Today/Rock The Vote poll sheds some light on this:

Opposition to Trump nearly unites the rising generation.

In a hypothetical Clinton v. Trump contest in November, voters under 35 would choose Clinton by a crushing 52%-19%, a preference that crosses demographic lines. Among whites, she’d be backed by nearly 2-1, 45%-26%. Among Hispanics, by more than 4-1, 61%-14%. Among Asian Americans, by 5-1, 60%-11%. Among African Americans, by 13-1, 67%-5%.

And the yawning gender gap she has against Sanders would vanish: Clinton would carry young men and women by almost identical margins of more than 2-1.

Nearly one in four Republicans would defect to the Democrats if the GOP nominated Trump against Clinton. Just 7% of Democrats would defect to the GOP.

If the Clinton camp has similar numbers, they must be very happy.

That, and a great supporting speech from Sanders at the convention, should be enough to secure a Clinton victory in the general election.