The Iowa Caucus is five weeks away and conventional wisdom has been that Trump will win Iowa, even if he fails in states after that.

But I am not so sure Iowa is in Trump’s column.

First of all, Cruz is essentially tied with Trump right now, at least according to the latest Iowa poll (conducted before Christmas).

But more importantly, Trump lacks something that Cruz and other candidates have — a ground game.  Let me explain.

We sometimes forget what a caucus is. The caucuses are generally defined as “gatherings of neighbors.” Rather than going to polls and casting ballots, Iowans gather at a set location in each of Iowa’s 1,682 precincts. Typically, these meetings occur in schools, churches, public libraries and even individuals’ houses.

At 7:00pm, each precinct will be called to order by the temporary chair, an individual appointed by the county party. After a permanent chair and secretary are elected by the body, business can begin. Since 2016 is a presidential election year, the first item of business will be to conduct a presidential preference poll. Delegates are then selected, and they are bound by the results of the poll in that caucus (this is a change from previous years).

But before the poll is taken, there is a lot of discussion.  A LOT of it.  And it is important that each candidate have precinct captains and leaders to mill around and discuss with those voting.

Trump’s problem?  He hasn’t lined these people up:

Some of Mr. Trump’s Republican rivals have spent months calling and knocking on doors to identify potential supporters to draw them out to caucuses, but Mr. Trump does not appear to have invested in this crucial “voter ID” strategy until recently.

The Trump campaign hopes to attract a surge of independents and disaffected Democrats on caucus night, but the latest data from the Iowa secretary of state show no significant growth in Republican registrations.

Interviews in Iowa with Mr. Trump’s campaign workers, his volunteers and dozens of attendees at his rallies over two months, as well as observations of voter outreach, conference calls and confidential training sessions, indicate that Mr. Trump’s support in the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses may fall short of his poll numbers in the state.

I believe that Trump supporters live in a vacuum right now.  They favor Trump, but that favoritism is soft for most of them, and they can easily be persuaded to vote for Cruz (who has, we’re told, an excellent ground game in Iowa).

So expect Trump to “lose” — and by that I mean, come in second or even third, in Iowa.  I don’t think he will win.