Monday Presidential Outlook

Ken AshfordElection 2016, PollsLeave a Comment

Slow news day but it is well worth mentioning that the sheen has come off the Trump, at least in Iowa.  Now we have three polls showing a substantial lead by Ben Carson over Trump:

Ben Carson has overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, surging to a 14-point lead, according to a new poll.

A Monmouth University survey released on Monday found Carson taking 32 percent support in Iowa, followed by Trump at 18 percent.

That’s a 9-point gain for Carson from the same poll in late August, while Trump has fallen five points in that time.

The poll found Carson with the best favorability rating in the field, with an astounding 84 percent of Iowa Republicans having a positive view of him, compared to only 7 percent who view him negatively.

Trump’s favorability rating is at 53 percent positive and 38 percent negative. His favorability rating is essentially unchanged from late August, although the percentage of those who view him unfavorably has increased by 5 points in that time.

Trump has led in nearly every poll of Iowa since early August, but the Monmouth survey is the third recent poll to show Carson with a healthy lead over the field in the Hawkeye State.

A Des Moines Register-Bloomberg poll released last week showed Carson with a 9 point lead, and a Quinnipiac University survey found Carson ahead by 8.

Carson is ahead among all demographic groups in Iowa, according to Monmouth. He leads among Republicans who describe themselves as “somewhat” and “very conservative,” as well as self-described moderates.

Carson also leads among evangelicals, non-evangelicals, men and women in the poll.

It is difficult to say what happened.  Trump “won” both debates.  He didn’t gaffe (or at least, there was nothing that seemed like a gaffe).

Personally, I think two things happened.  First of all, he simply grew tiresome to some people.  Secondly, the Democratic debates showed what serious candidates looked like, and people saw Trump in a new light.  Iowa is getting closer and now the Republicans there are getting more serious about who they want.  Carson was always slowly rising, and that made him a safer bet (especially among evangelicals).

As a Democrat, this is fantastic news.  Democrats would love to run against Trump, but the one person even better than Trump, is Carson.  A nice guy, but politically dumb.  Really dumb.