2013 Oscar Predictions

Actor in a Leading Role

  • Bradley Cooper in "Silver Linings Playbook"
  • Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln"
  • Hugh Jackman in "Les Misérables"
  • Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master"
  • Denzel Washington in "Flight"

WILL WIN:  Daniel Day-Lewis – This is easily predictable.

Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Alan Arkin in "Argo"
  • Robert De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook"
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master"
  • Tommy Lee Jones in "Lincoln"
  • Christoph Waltz in "Django Unchained"

WILL WIN: Christoph Waltz in "Django Unchained" – This, for me, is a VERY tough category; I can see it going to anybody except Tommy Lee Jones.  I think DeNiro and Arkin's roles were too small (certainly compared to Waltz), so I think he has a slight edge over those two.  And as between Waltz and Hoffman — well, it's a flip of the coin.

Actress in a Leading Role

  • Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty"
  • Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook"
  • Emmanuelle Riva in "Amour"
  • Quvenzhané Wallis in "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
  • Naomi Watts in "The Impossible"

WILL WIN: Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook"

Actress in a Supporting Role

  • Amy Adams in "The Master"
  • Sally Field in "Lincoln"
  • Anne Hathaway in "Les Misérables"
  • Helen Hunt in "The Sessions"
  • Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings Playbook"

WILL WIN and SHOULD WIN: Anne Hathaway in "Les Misérables" – there's some late pull for Sally Field, but I don't buy into it.  Hathaway's performance was the most talked-about of the year, and rightly so.

Animated Feature Film

  • "Brave" Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
  • "Frankenweenie" Tim Burton
  • "ParaNorman" Sam Fell and Chris Butler
  • "The Pirates! Band of Misfits" Peter Lord
  • "Wreck-It Ralph" Rich Moore

WILL WIN"Wreck-It Ralph" Rich Moore – "Frankenweenie" probably is more exciting visually, but Ralph had a better story and theme.

Cinematography

  • "Anna Karenina" Seamus McGarvey
  • "Django Unchained" Robert Richardson
  • "Life of Pi" Claudio Miranda
  • "Lincoln" Janusz Kaminski
  • "Skyfall" Roger Deakins

WILL WIN: "Life of Pi" Claudio Miranda – "Lincoln" was a great movie to look at, and each scene evoked a mood, so it has a strong chance of winning this award.  But for my money, "Life of Pi" was breathtaking in every scene, and I think the Academy will be smart enough to recognize it.

Costume Design

  • "Anna Karenina" Jacqueline Durran
  • "Les Misérables" Paco Delgado
  • "Lincoln" Joanna Johnston
  • "Mirror Mirror" Eiko Ishioka
  • "Snow White and the Huntsman" Colleen Atwood

WILL WIN: "Anna Karenina" Jacqueline Durran – Les Mis blew it with that odd at that Russell Crowe wore.  Lincoln's costumes were, I'm sure, painstakingly accurate, but I think you have to give it to Anna.

Directing

  • "Amour" Michael Haneke
  • "Beasts of the Southern Wild" Benh Zeitlin
  • "Life of Pi" Ang Lee
  • "Lincoln" Steven Spielberg
  • "Silver Linings Playbook" David O. Russell

WILL WIN: "Lincoln" Steven Spielberg

SHOULD WIN: "Life of Pi" Ang Lee or "Argo" Ben Affleck (who wasn't even nominated)

Documentary Feature

  • "5 Broken Cameras" 
    Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
  • "The Gatekeepers" 
    Dror Moreh, Philippa Kowarsky and Estelle Fialon
  • "How to Survive a Plague" 
    David France and Howard Gertler
  • "The Invisible War" 
    Kirby Dick and Amy Ziering
  • "Searching for Sugar Man" 
    Malik Bendjelloul and Simon Chinn

WILL WIN: "Searching for Sugar Man" Malik Bendjelloul and Simon Chinn

Documentary Short Subject

  • "Inocente" 
    Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
  • "Kings Point" 
    Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
  • "Mondays at Racine" 
    Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
  • "Open Heart" 
    Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern
  • "Redemption" 
    Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill

WILL WIN: "Open Heart" Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern – I didn't see these films, but I read the synopses, and while they all shine a light on a cause or tragedy or both, I went with the one taking place in Africa.  Because, Africa.

Film Editing

  • "Argo" William Goldenberg
  • "Life of Pi" Tim Squyres
  • "Lincoln" Michael Kahn
  • "Silver Linings Playbook" Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
  • "Zero Dark Thirty" Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

Will win:  "Argo" William Goldenberg

Foreign Language Film

  • "Amour" Austria
  • "Kon-Tiki" Norway
  • "No" Chile
  • "A Royal Affair" Denmark
  • "War Witch" Canada

WILL WIN: "Amour" Austria

Makeup and Hairstyling

  • "Hitchcock"
    Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
  • "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
    Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
  • "Les Misérables" 
    Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

WILL WIN: "Les Misérables" Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnel

Music (Original Score)

  • "Anna Karenina" Dario Marianelli
  • "Argo" Alexandre Desplat
  • "Life of Pi" Mychael Danna
  • "Lincoln" John Williams
  • "Skyfall" Thomas Newman

WILL WIN: "Life of Pi" Mychael DannaI always find John Williams' score overbearing and manipulative.  He'll probably win, but I just can't accept it, so I'm going with "Life of Pi",

Music (Original Song)

  • "Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice"
    Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
  • "Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from "Ted"
    Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
  • "Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi"
    Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
  • "Skyfall" from "Skyfall"
    Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
  • "Suddenly" from "Les Misérables"
    Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

WILL WIN: "Skyfall" from "Skyfall" Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth – Sorry Les Mis.  The added song just wasn't good.

Best Picture

  • "Amour" Margaret Menegoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka and Michael Katz, Producers
  • "Argo" Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
  • "Beasts of the Southern Wild" Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers
  • "Django Unchained" Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
  • "Les Misérables" Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
  • "Life of Pi" Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
  • "Lincoln" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
  • "Silver Linings Playbook" Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
  • "Zero Dark ThirtyMark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers

WILL WIN: "Argo" – It's odd for me this year — I've seen seven of the nine nominees (I didn't see Amour or Beasts of the Southern Wild).  Of the seven I saw, I would put Argo, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, and Silver Linings Playbook on a higher tier than Les Mis, Lincoln, or Django Unchained.  Between those four, I would have a hard time picking my favorite — they each have their own way of "staying with you".  I'm giving my vote to "Argo" because it is doing well this award season, but I wouldn't be surprised or disappointed if the others in my "top 4" won.

Production Design

  • "Anna Karenina"
    Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
  • "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
    Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
  • "Les Misérables" 
    Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
  • "Life of Pi" 
    Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
  • "Lincoln" 
    Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson 

WILL WIN: "Les Misérables" Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson – A slight edge over Anna, but only slight.

Short Film (Animated)

  • "Adam and Dog" Minkyu Lee
  • "Fresh Guacamole" PES
  • "Head over Heels" Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly
  • "Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"" David Silverman
  • "Paperman" John Kahrs

WILL WIN: "Paperman" John KahrsI saw all of these (in one screening), and the two best were probably "Adam and Dog" and "Paperman".  "Paperman" was better in my view — the animation technique was unusual and quite beautiful, but not distracting.

Short Film (Live Action)

  • "Asad" Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
  • "Buzkashi Boys" Sam French and Ariel Nasr
  • "Curfew" Shawn Christensen
  • "Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)" Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
  • "Henry" Yan England

WILL WIN: "Asad" Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura

SHOULD WIN: "Curfew" Shawn Christensen

"Curfew" is an odd movie dealing with suicide and alienation, but full of humor and heart.  That's a tough bill to fill, but it was done nicely.  Good as it was, I think the Academy will give the award to "Asad", a very good film made about Somalia pirates and children, and played skillfully by non-actor Somalian refugees themselves.

Sound Editing

  • "Argo" Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn
  • "Django Unchained" Wylie Stateman
  • "Life of Pi" Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
  • "Skyfall" Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
  • "Zero Dark Thirty" Paul N.J. Ottosson

Will win: "Life of Pi" Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton

Sound Mixing

  • "Argo"
    John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
  • "Les Misérables" 
    Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
  • "Life of Pi"
    Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
  • "Lincoln" 
    Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
  • "Skyfall" 
    Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson

WILL WIN: "Les Misérables"  Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes

Visual Effects

  • "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" 
    Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
  • "Life of Pi" 
    Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
  • "Marvel's The Avengers" 
    Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
  • "Prometheus" 
    Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
  • "Snow White and the Huntsman"
    Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson

Will win and should win: "Life of Pi" Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

  • "Argo" Screenplay by Chris Terrio
  • "Beasts of the Southern Wild" Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
  • "Life of Pi" Screenplay by David Magee
  • "Lincoln" Screenplay by Tony Kushner
  • "Silver Linings Playbook" Screenplay by David O. Russell

WILL WIN: "Lincoln" Screenplay by Tony Kushner – but don't be too surprised if "Argo" pulls an upset.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

  • "Amour" Written by Michael Haneke
  • "Django Unchained" Written by Quentin Tarantino
  • "Flight" Written by John Gatins
  • "Moonrise Kingdom" Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
  • "Zero Dark Thirty" Written by Mark Boal

WILL WIN: "Django Unchained" Written by Quentin Tarantino – This is a tough one as I have only seen two of the nominees, but I think it will be Quentin's snappy dialogue which wins the day.

What do you think?