The GOP saw Michigan as a vulnerable blue state. McCain and Palin have been there; they were planning to go back (that visit has been cancelled). Staffers, offices and advertising have all been pulled from the state.
What does that mean? It means what we’ve known for a few days now: McCain is losing in swing states, and even being seriously challenged in traditional red states.
At this point, the electoral map basically looks like this: Start with the 2004 results. Iowa and New Mexico flip to the Democratic column. Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, and New Hampshire all move into the toss-up column. That puts Obama at a base of 243 electoral votes and McCain at a base of 179. According to Pollster.com, poll averages show Obama ahead in Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. McCain leads in Indiana and North Carolina. They’re tied in New Hampshire. Plug all that in and you have Obama at 329 electoral votes, and McCain at 205.
So McCain can’t afford to waste resources on Michigan, which is too blue to be anything otherwise.
Perhaps Obama should now cut back on Michigan as well, and focus on Missouri again.