Obama Cutting Into Hillary’s Superdel Advantage

Ken AshfordElection 20081 Comment


WASHINGTON — Slowly but steadily, a string of Democratic Party figures is taking Barack Obama’s side in the presidential nominating race and raising the pressure on Hillary Clinton to give up.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota is expected to endorse Sen. Obama Monday, according to a Democrat familiar with her plans. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s seven Democratic House members are poised to endorse Sen. Obama as a group — just one has so far — before that state’s May 6 primary, several Democrats say.

[UPDATE:  The NC delegation that is supposed to endorse Obama en masse?  There’s been a denial issued on that.]

The graphic says it all.


Also, the daily Gallup poll shows Obama widening on the popular vote over the past week or so, suggesting that the Wright controversy hasn’t hurt him:


This marks the first time either candidate has held a double-digit lead over the other since Feb. 4-6, at which point Clinton led Obama by 11 percentage points.

I’m not among those who thinks Hillary should bow out now.  It is still very possible she can win, although the only way I think that can happen — realistically — is if Obama’s three illegitimate children show up (or something like that). 

Look, she’ll win Pennsylvania, but lose North Carolina and Indiana and most of the remaining states.  Superdels will continue to move into Obama’s column.  Her chances of winning are at 25% in my estimate, but that’s good enough to keep fighting the good fight.

The Washington Post editorial board sees some advantage to a protracted battle, namely:

* There are “millions of votes are yet to be cast,” and those voters should get “a chance” to express a preference;

* An “extended contest informs the electorate” and “battle-tests” the eventual nominee;

* Dems are gaining new voters for the fall with increased registration.

Sounds good to me.