Wednesday Political Fallout

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

A handy dandy chart from Open Left:

Super Tuesday Results, Democrats

State Reporting C % O % Delegates Clinton Obama
Delegates 1,681 579 501
Alabama 99% 42% 56% 52 17 18
Alaska 98% 25% 75% 13 4 9
Am. Samoa 100% 66% 33% 3 2 1
Arizona 93% 51% 42% 56 22 13
Arkansas 89% 69% 27% 35 23 6
California 75% 53% 41% 370 66 0
Colorado 99% 32% 67% 55 14 22
Connecticut 99% 47% 51% 48 22 26
Delaware 100% 42% 53% 15 6 9
Georgia 99% 31% 67% 87 18 27
Idaho 100% 17% 79% 18 3 15
Illinois 97% 33% 65% 153 31 62
Kansas 100% 26% 74% 32 9 23
Massachusetts 97% 56% 41% 93 52 36
Minnesota 81% 32% 67% 72 12 25
Missouri 100% 48% 49% 72 28 28
New Jersey 99% 54% 44% 107 51 37
New Mexico 98% 48% 48% 26 0 0
New York 99% 57% 40% 232 127 87
North Dakota 100%. 37% 61% 13 5 8
Oklahoma 100% 55% 31% 38 24 14
Tennessee 100% 54% 41% 68 34 21
Utah 99% 39% 57% 23 9 14

New Mexico is still too close to call.  Apparently, the poll workers quit at 5:00 a.m., and decided to start fresh with the tallying today.  When they quit, there was onyla 70 difference between the two.

Obviously, this is a moving train, especially when it comes to delegate counts.  (See, e.g., California).  But the result is what most people expected — Clinton having slightly more delegates than Obama.  Other places are putting the current total at Clinton 670, Obama 650 with California still out.  And Late last night NBC News predicted Obama 841, Clinton-837, (+/- 10 delegates).

Still, I think Obama has "bragging rights" in that he took more states, and — perhaps more importantly — more states of geographic diversity.

On the other hand, the Clinton campaign can rightfully say that Obama came into yesterday with a huge momentum, and that momentum is not stopped.

But really, neither side can claim victory.  The word for the Democrats after Super Tuesday?  "Stalemate".  Keep playing.

I’m a little surprised by the media spin that Clinton’s victory in Massachusetts was a surprise (because, after all, Obama received the endorsements of the Kennedys and John Kerry).  That’s all nonsense.  First of all, as I’ve said, endorsements don’t persuade voters enough to have any real effect.  Secondly, Clinton was always polling ahead — way ahead — of Obama in Massachusetts.  So, she won a state that she was expected to win.  Big deal.

What’s next?  On Saturday, it’s Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington. Then on Sunday it’s Maine. Then Tuesday offers Maryland, DC, and Virginia. Then February 19 offers Wisconsin and Hawaii.  Those states, taken as a whole, are favorable to Obama.  Unfortuately, even combined, they don’t carry a ton of delegates.  (The Carbpetbagger Report has a nice analysis).

On the GOP side, well, it was not the night that Romney needed.  Mitt is meeting with his advisors to “consider their next steps.”  If that means he’s dropping out, that leaves McCain and Huckabee.  Huckabee, of course, won the hillbilly states last night, which is nice for him I suppose, but it’s not really going to get him the nomination.  So I think we’re seeing the beginning of the end of the GOP race.

Still, the conservatives despair, not just of McCain, but of their ideology.  A typical reaction:

I think conservatives are going to have to work hard, these coming years, to grow a couple of new leaders of our own. And while we are at it, time to make greater inroads into the culture.

Yeah.  Boohoo.


* Anonymous Liberal looks at the political landscape and finds it quite similar to the fictional election in the last seasons of The West Wing (when nobody watched anymore).

* I don’t listen to Rush as a rule, and today will be no exception, but I’m sure he’s going to be interesting today, what with McCain doing well yesterday.

It’s odd.  Obama seems to do much better in states with a large black population (e.g., South Carolina) or virtually no black population at all (e.g., Iowa, Minnesota).  I guess that speaks well to the diversity of his appeal.  Still one wonders why he’s not prevailing in states in between.

* You know, in light of the 45 tornado-related deaths that happened yesterday in Tennessee, Arkansas and Kentucky, I bet a lot of media people are kinda wishing that had avoided calling it "Tsunami Tuesday".

* Best large landscape summary I’ve read so far: "…in Dem terms, their choice on Super Duper Tuesday was deciding which candidate was Super Duper and which was merely Super. Over on the GOP side, it was a choice between Weak & Divisive or Weaker & Unacceptable."

* Obama’s speech last night was a master of triangulation.  He was gracious and inspiring, but when he started talking about his "opponents", I couldn’t tell if he was referring to Hillary Clinton or John McCain.  And then I realized — he’s intentionally keeping it vague, so that you will lump Hillary Clinton with John McCain.  And from a rhetorical standpoint, it worked.  Still, his South Carolina speech from a few weeks ago is the gold standard.